黑色建材日报-20260227

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - series is currently in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, it is likely to maintain a range - bound and weakly - centered operation, and no trending market has formed yet. Attention should be paid to the actual recovery strength of sheet demand, policy trends during the Two Sessions, and possible marginal adjustments to the "dual - carbon" policy after the Spring Festival [2]. - For iron ore, after the end of the weather influence, overseas supply has recovered. With high inventory suppressing price increases and structural issues to be resolved, while iron - water production on the demand side has recovered well. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly and steadily. Attention should be paid to the start of domestic terminal demand and policy guidance during the important March meeting [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, in the long - term, the view that the commodity bulls will continue is maintained. In the short term, the market may enter a period of oscillation and volatility reduction. Future market - leading factors include the direction of the black sector, cost - push from manganese ore in the manganese - silicon segment, and supply contraction in the ferrosilicon segment [9][10]. - For coking coal and coke, in the long - term, the view that the commodity bulls will continue is maintained. In the short term, the market may enter a period of oscillation and volatility reduction. Coking coal prices are not strongly catalyzed in the short term, and there is a risk of a phased price correction in March - May. However, it is expected to have a relatively smooth upward market from June - October [16]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side is contracting, and the demand side is weakening. If the northwest large - scale plants resume production as planned in March, the price is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the external impact of coal - coke trends [19]. - For polysilicon, supply continues to decrease, and there is a marginal improvement in supply - demand, with a slight expected reduction in high inventory. The spot price center has moved down, and the futures market is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to subsequent demand feedback and spot prices [21]. - For glass, the real - estate policy has led to a slight improvement in the real - estate and building - materials sectors, but the rebound is limited. The spot market is mainly driven by rigid demand, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [24]. - For soda ash, the supply side maintains a high - level operation, the demand side is weak, and the market is expected to continue a weakly - stable oscillation in the short term [26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products 3.1.1. Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3063 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton (- 0.42%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 19,597 tons, with no change from the previous day. The main - contract position was 1.9524 million lots, a decrease of 36,289 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3130 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3210 yuan/ton, both with no change [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3218 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton (- 0.55%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 350,770 tons, an increase of 1765 tons. The main - contract position was 1.4928 million lots, a decrease of 8403 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong and Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton, both with no change [1]. 3.1.2. Strategy Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market declined yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products had a phased technical rebound after the previous decline. The "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" for the real - estate market is expected to boost the real - estate market. Rebar shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and hot - rolled coils have a relatively high inventory. In general, the black - series is in a bottom - game stage, and in the short term, it is likely to maintain a range - bound and weakly - centered operation [2]. Iron Ore 3.2.1. Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 748.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.53% (- 4.00), and the position increased by 12,089 lots to 540,600 lots. The weighted position was 935,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 750 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.22 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.93%. Some steel enterprises in North China have received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the important national meeting in 2026, from March 4th to March 11th [4]. 3.2.2. Strategy Viewpoints - On the supply side, after the elimination of weather disturbances during the Spring Festival, overseas ore shipments have returned to the same - period high. The shipments from Australia have significantly recovered, and those from Brazil have slightly increased. The shipments from non - mainstream countries have rebounded month - on - month. The near - end arrivals have continued to decline. On the demand side, the daily average pig - iron production has increased to 233,280 tons (from February 12th to February 25th). Some blast furnaces were scheduled to resume production before the Spring Festival, and most of the blast - furnace overhauls started in late February. The profitability of steel mills has slightly increased. During the important meeting, pig - iron production is expected to be briefly affected. In terms of inventory, port inventory has returned to the accumulation stage, and the inventory of steel mills has significantly decreased during the holiday, with the imported - ore inventory of steel mills falling to a low level. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly and steadily [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon 3.3.1. Market Information - On February 26th, affected by market rumors, the price of manganese silicon increased significantly, driving a certain increase in ferrosilicon. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed up 2.89% at 5918 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, converted to the futures price of 5890 yuan/ton, a increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and at a discount of 28 yuan/ton to the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed up 0.95% at 5538 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and at a premium of 212 yuan/ton to the futures [8]. 3.3.2. Strategy Viewpoints - In the long - term, the view that the commodity bulls will continue is maintained. In the short term, the market may enter a period of oscillation and volatility reduction. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been factored into the price. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement. Future market - leading factors include the direction of the black sector, cost - push from manganese ore in the manganese - silicon segment, and supply contraction in the ferrosilicon segment. Attention should be paid to possible sudden situations in the manganese - ore segment and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke 3.4.1. Market Information - On February 26th, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 3.20% at 1090.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1533.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.8 yuan/ton; the price of medium - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1270 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1197 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 1.79% at 1644.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1480 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1550 yuan/ton, with no change [12]. 3.4.2. Strategy Viewpoints - Last week, the prices of coking coal and coke weakened. On the one hand, as the Spring Festival approached, the downstream terminal replenishment ended, leading to a decline in demand and restricting prices. On the other hand, the market lacked confidence in the downstream steel - product terminal demand after the Spring Festival, and some long - position funds "fled" due to the need for pre - holiday position - closing and risk - avoidance. In the long - term, the view that the commodity bulls will continue is maintained. In the short term, the market may enter a period of oscillation and volatility reduction. The uncertainty in the US - Iran situation during the Spring Festival has led to a rebound in energy prices, which may have a positive impact on coal prices. In the short term, the upward catalysis for coking - coal prices is not strong, and there is a risk of a phased price correction from March to May. However, coking coal is expected to have a relatively smooth upward market from June to October [14][15][16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 3.5.1. Market Information - Industrial Silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.13% (- 95). The weighted - contract position increased by 14,625 lots to 441,671 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the main contract was 815 yuan/ton for 553 and 515 yuan/ton for 421 [18]. - Polysilicon: The main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 46315 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.76% (- 1315). The weighted - contract position increased by 1480 lots to 65,703 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.75 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re -投料 was 52 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1 yuan/kg. The basis of the main contract was 5685 yuan/ton [20]. 3.5.2. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial Silicon: The price of industrial silicon oscillated downward yesterday. On the supply side, in February, a large - scale plant in the northwest shut down half of its production, and all production enterprises in Sichuan shut down. The industry's operating rate declined, and the supply side continued to contract. On the demand side, the production schedule of polysilicon declined in February, and a leading enterprise has been shut down since January and remained so in February. The operating rates of organic silicon and silicon - aluminum alloy were weakly stable, and the overall demand for industrial silicon weakened. If the northwest large - scale plants resume production as planned in March, the price is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the external impact of coal - coke trends [19]. - Polysilicon: In terms of supply - demand, a leading enterprise maintained a full - scale shutdown in February, and the supply continued to decrease. The production schedule of silicon wafers is expected to remain stable, and there is a marginal improvement in supply - demand, with a slight expected reduction in high inventory in the silicon - material segment. The prices of battery cells and components have increased due to pre - holiday policies and cost - push, but the silicon - wafer segment is still in a state of low prices and high inventory. The spot price center of polysilicon has moved down after the Spring Festival, and the trading is light. In terms of policy expectations, anti - involution is expected to support the price, and the full cost serves as a price - support reference. The futures position and liquidity of polysilicon have fallen to a relatively low level since listing, and the futures market is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to subsequent demand feedback and spot prices [21]. Glass and Soda Ash 3.6.1. Market Information - Glass: On Thursday at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1058 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56% (- 6). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1050 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1110 yuan, with no change. On February 26th, the weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 76.008 million cases, an increase of 20.656 million cases (+ 37.32%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 11,202 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 38,948 lots [23]. - Soda Ash: On Thursday at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1191 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of heavy - soda ash in Shahe was 1151 yuan, with no change. On February 26th, the weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.8944 million tons, an increase of 306,400 tons (+ 37.32%), including 895,900 tons of heavy - soda ash, an increase of 139,500 tons, and 998,500 tons of light - soda ash, an increase of 166,900 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders decreased their long positions by 13,133 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their short positions by 4607 lots [25]. 3.6.2. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: The real - estate policy in Shanghai on the 25th has led to a slight improvement in the real - estate and building - materials sectors, but the rebound is limited. The spot - market transactions are mainly driven by rigid demand, and enterprises' willingness to purchase is generally low. On the supply side, although some production lines have entered cold - repair, the industry's production capacity is expected to decline slightly, but it has not effectively supported the spot price. It is expected that the float - glass market will continue to oscillate in the short term, with the main - contract reference range of 1025 - 1100 yuan/ton [24]. - Soda Ash: On the supply side, Fengcheng Salt Chemical has started operation, and the industry's overall operating load remains high. The demand side is weak, new orders are scarce, and manufacturers mainly execute pending orders and have a strong willingness to stabilize prices and sell goods. In general, the trading atmosphere in the soda - ash market is light, and the price lacks upward drive. It is expected that the market will continue a weakly - stable oscillation in the short term, with the main - contract reference range of 1140 - 1200 yuan/ton [26].