有色金属日报 2026-2-27-20260227

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The US is expected to maintain its tariff policy, and the sentiment is still supportive. The supply of copper ore remains tight, but the supply of refined copper is relatively surplus, and the short - term copper price is expected to be volatile. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars/ton [5]. - Aluminum: The LME inventory is at a relatively low level, and the spot premium in the eastern US remains high. Although some plants have production changes, the short - term price support is strong. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 23,400 - 23,900 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is 3,100 - 3,170 US dollars/ton [7]. - Lead: The lead ore inventory is slightly lower but still higher than the same period in previous years, and the processing fee of lead concentrate remains low. The lead price may be supported by the strategic inventory of battery enterprises, but the recovery of downstream enterprises' start - up needs to be observed [9]. - Zinc: The inventory accumulation of zinc ore slows down, and the TC of zinc concentrate stabilizes. The domestic zinc industry shows a weak performance, but if the prices of copper and aluminum rise sharply, the zinc price may follow due to relative valuation [11]. - Tin: In the long - term, the tin price maintains an upward trend, but in the short - term, there is pressure for a sharp rise. It is expected to operate in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see, with the domestic main contract reference range of 380,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton and the overseas LME tin reference range of 48,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton [14]. - Nickel: The reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia leads to a gradual contraction of nickel supply, and the nickel price is expected to rise with cost support. It is recommended to go long on dips, with the short - term Shanghai nickel price reference range of 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton and the LME nickel 3M contract reference range of 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton [16]. - Lithium Carbonate: The short - term spot shortage pattern is expected to continue, but after continuous rises, attention should be paid to the increase of high - level cashing orders. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 164,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [19]. - Alumina: The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The key to future price trends lies in the potential disturbances in the Guinea ore end and the alleviation of domestic supply pressure. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton [22]. - Stainless Steel: The supply pressure will be continuously relieved after the Spring Festival, and the cost support of the industrial chain is still solid. The price has strong support at the bottom, and the bullish view is maintained, with the main contract reference range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [25]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cost of cast aluminum alloy still has support, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile and strong due to the improvement of demand expectations and supply - side disturbances [28]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Information - The copper price fluctuated and adjusted. The LME copper 3M contract fell 0.68% to 13,259 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,150 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 3,950 to 253,600 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by more than 20,000 tons compared with the first day after the Spring Festival [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - The US tariff policy and the tight supply of copper ore provide support, but the relative surplus of refined copper supply forms short - term resistance. The short - term copper price is expected to be volatile [5]. Aluminum Market Information - The aluminum price adjusted. The LME aluminum 3M contract fell 1.01% to 3,141 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,690 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract position increased by 0.3 to 653,000 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.2 to 468,000 tons [6]. Strategy Viewpoint - The LME inventory is low, and the spot premium in the eastern US is high. Although some plants have production changes, the short - term price support is strong [7]. Lead Market Information - The Shanghai lead index rose 0.35% to 16,793 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S rose 21.5 to 1,989.5 US dollars/ton. The domestic lead ingot social inventory increased by 0.47 to 69,000 tons on February 26 [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - The lead ore inventory is slightly lower but still higher than the same period in previous years, and the processing fee of lead concentrate remains low. The lead price may be supported by the strategic inventory of battery enterprises, but the recovery of downstream enterprises' start - up needs to be observed [9]. Zinc Market Information - The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.54% to 24,593 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S fell 20 to 3,382.5 US dollars/ton. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory increased by 0.61 to 180,400 tons on February 26 [10]. Strategy Viewpoint - The inventory accumulation of zinc ore slows down, and the TC of zinc concentrate stabilizes. The domestic zinc industry shows a weak performance, but if the prices of copper and aluminum rise sharply, the zinc price may follow due to relative valuation [11]. Tin Market Information - On February 26, the tin price fluctuated. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 414,180 yuan/ton, down 0.48%. The SHFE inventory decreased by 188 to 11,556 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 105 to 7,575 tons [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the long - term, the tin price maintains an upward trend, but in the short - term, there is pressure for a sharp rise. It is expected to operate in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. Nickel Market Information - On February 26, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 140,080 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. The price of nickel ore remained stable, and the price of nickel iron continued to rise [15]. Strategy Viewpoint - The reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia leads to a gradual contraction of nickel supply, and the nickel price is expected to rise with cost support. It is recommended to go long on dips [16]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC of lithium carbonate rose 6.80% to 175,150 yuan. The LC2605 contract closed at 173,660 yuan, up 4.31%. The weekly output increased by 8.1% to 21,822 tons, and the inventory decreased by 2,839 to 100,093 tons [18]. Strategy Viewpoint - The short - term spot shortage pattern is expected to continue, but after continuous rises, attention should be paid to the increase of high - level cashing orders. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 164,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina Market Information - On February 26, the alumina index fell 1.66% to 2,830 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price rose 15 to 2,585 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 20 yuan/ton. The futures inventory increased by 0.24 to 349,800 tons [21]. Strategy Viewpoint - The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The key to future price trends lies in the potential disturbances in the Guinea ore end and the alleviation of domestic supply pressure [22]. Stainless Steel Market Information - The stainless steel main contract closed at 14,265 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets had different changes, and the raw material prices also changed. The futures inventory increased by 12,398 to 60,198 tons, and the social inventory increased to 953,700 tons [24]. Strategy Viewpoint - The supply pressure will be continuously relieved after the Spring Festival, and the cost support of the industrial chain is still solid. The price has strong support at the bottom, and the bullish view is maintained [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The price of cast aluminum alloy rose and then fell. The main AD2604 contract closed up 0.26% to 22,710 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased to 20,700 hands, and the trading volume increased. The inventory of domestic mainstream aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the in - plant inventory increased [27]. Strategy Viewpoint - The cost of cast aluminum alloy still has support, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile and strong due to the improvement of demand expectations and supply - side disturbances [28].