芝加哥联储行长：若通胀回落美联储可能多次降息

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index): The Chicago Fed President suggests that if inflation falls, the Fed may cut interest rates multiple times. The Iranian Foreign Minister claims progress in US - Iran negotiations, leading to a decline in market risk appetite and a lower US Dollar Index. The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [1][12][13]. - Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures): A - shares are in a volatile consolidation phase with increasing trading volume. The spring rally is likely not over. Concerns about the overseas AI bubble are deepening, increasing short - term correction pressure on technology stocks, but they are still optimistic in the medium - term [2][16]. - Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures): The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Stabilizing real estate policies are temporary disturbances. Before other negative factors emerge, the bond market is unlikely to fall continuously. However, potential risks such as the "Two Sessions" and supply pressure in March still exist [3][18]. - Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil): Brazil imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese galvanized and aluminized zinc - coated steel coils. The inventory of the five major steel products continued to increase significantly, and the fundamental pressure is prominent. The rebound in steel prices due to short - term real estate policies is expected to be limited [4][23]. - Agricultural Products (Sugar): Brazil exported 1.3138 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of February. India's sugar production estimate for this season was significantly reduced by 1.65 million tons to 29.3 million tons, which will support domestic prices, limit exports, and reduce the global sugar supply surplus [5][33]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate): Finland launched the first commercial spodumene mine in Europe. In the short - term, a bullish view is maintained, but the price may correct when supply increases in the medium - term [6][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee reiterates that if there is more evidence of inflation moving towards the Fed's 2% target, interest rates could be further cut in 2026. Fed Vice - Chair for Supervision Bowman says regulators will release a revised bank capital reform proposal by the end of March [11]. - The Iranian Foreign Minister claims progress in US - Iran negotiations, causing a decline in market risk appetite and a lower US Dollar Index. The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01% to 4146.63 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.19%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.29%. The trading volume increased to 2.56 trillion yuan. AI - related stocks were affected by NVIDIA's earnings, and some sectors had significant movements [14]. - The spring rally is likely not over due to increasing trading volume. Concerns about the overseas AI bubble may lead to short - term corrections in technology stocks, but they are still promising in the medium - term. It is recommended to hold stock index long positions evenly [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on February 26, with a net withdrawal of 7.95 billion yuan [17]. - Stabilizing real estate policies are temporary disturbances. The bond market is unlikely to fall continuously in the short - term, but potential risks such as the "Two Sessions" and supply pressure in March exist. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and face adjustment risks in the long - term [18][19]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Brazil imposed a 5 - year anti - dumping duty of 284.98 - 709.63 US dollars per ton on Chinese galvanized and aluminized zinc - coated steel coils. South Korea made a final anti - dumping ruling on hot - rolled coils from China and Japan, with some Chinese enterprises accepting price commitments [20][21]. - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 1.3427 million tons to 18.4611 million tons in the week ending February 26. The inventory of coils exceeded last year's peak. The market is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern, and short - term steel price rebounds are limited [23][24]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Changzhi market was weakly stable. After the Spring Festival, coal supply increased as mines resumed production, but demand remained weak. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [25][26]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US weekly soybean export sales net increased by 407,100 tons in the week ending February 19, down 49% from the previous week and 30% from the four - week average, and was at the lower end of the market forecast range [27]. - The US government's biofuel policy may benefit soybean crushing, but actual export data is disappointing. Domestically, the price of imported soybeans has risen, but soybean meal supply is sufficient. It is recommended to maintain the view of price volatility and pay attention to China's soybean procurement, customs policies, and reserve policies [29]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil exported 1.3138 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of February, with a daily average export volume 44% higher than that in February last year. The sugar production estimate in India for this season was reduced by 1.65 million tons to 29.3 million tons [30][32]. - The reduction in Indian sugar production will support domestic prices, limit exports, and reduce the global sugar supply surplus. The Brazilian sugar production in the new season will have a greater impact on the international sugar market. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [33][34]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From February 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.25% month - on - month [35]. - The oil market showed a differentiated trend. Soybean oil was affected by the US biofuel policy and trended strongly. The market is pessimistic about Malaysia's palm oil exports in February. It is expected that the palm oil price will continue to test the bottom, and attention should be paid to the final US biofuel policy in March [36][37]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of February 26, the average inventory of feed enterprises across the country was 31.29 days, a decrease of 0.96 days from the previous week, a month - on - month decline of 2.98%, and a year - on - year decline of 2.43% [38]. - The corn futures price was volatile. The slowdown in grain sales during the Spring Festival, low port inventory, and downstream replenishment demand support the price. However, the price increase may be limited by downstream acceptance and potential policy grain releases. The price is expected to be volatile and slightly upward, but the 05 contract may face a technical correction [38]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Tangrenshen expects to gradually reduce the proportion of外购仔猪 (purchased piglets) in 2026 and strive to reduce the full - cost of fattening pigs to about 12.6 yuan per kilogram. Wens Co., Ltd. plans to repurchase shares worth 800 million - 1.2 billion yuan [39][41]. - The current slaughter volume is low, and the supply pressure remains. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak. The near - month futures contracts face basis - repair pressure, while the far - month contracts may rebound after over - falling. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long on the far - month contracts after the negative factors are exhausted [41][42]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Finland launched the first commercial spodumene mine in Europe, with a lithium concentrate production capacity equivalent to about 15,000 tons of lithium hydroxide. Core Lithium reached a fixed - price agreement with Glencore to sell about 5,100 dry tons of spodumene concentrate [43][44]. - In the short - term, a bullish view on lithium carbonate is maintained, but the price may correct when supply increases in the medium - term [45]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On February 25, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 46.37 US dollars per ton, and the social inventory of lead ingots in five places increased by 3,100 tons [46]. - The Shanghai lead futures were in a low - level volatile pattern. The lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the price is supported by the cost of recycled smelters. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider long positions in the medium - term [46][47]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On February 25, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of 29.64 US dollars per ton. As of February 26, the social inventory of zinc ingots in seven places increased by 10,200 tons [48][49]. - The zinc price was volatile. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased. The downstream start - up was slow. It is recommended to adopt a bullish approach and continue to hold call options, while being vigilant about tariff risks [49]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Mexico's mining safety risk has increased significantly, and Japan's copper and copper alloy imports in January increased by 13.51% year - on - year. The core leadership of Congo (Kinshasa)'s state - owned mining company has been replaced [50][51][52]. - The copper price is affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation and domestic policies. The domestic and overseas inventories are increasing, which restricts the price increase. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [52][53]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - On February 25, the LME 0 - 3 tin was at a premium of 20 US dollars per ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 182 tons on February 26 [54]. - The supply of tin ore may gradually ease in the short - term but is expected to be restricted in the long - term. The price is expected to be in a strong and wide - range volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the recovery of tin ore imports from Myanmar and post - holiday consumption [54][55]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemical (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - As of February 20, the US propane/propylene output was about 2,862 thousand barrels per day, the inventory was 725 million barrels, a decrease of 17 million barrels from the previous week, and the consumption decreased from 1,472 thousand barrels per day to 1,343 thousand barrels per day [56]. - The LPG price is expected to be strong. The domestic spot market is tepid, and the inventory is higher than last year, with a weaker destocking slope [56][57]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emissions) - On February 26, the closing price of CEA in the national carbon emissions trading market was 81 yuan per ton, the same as the previous day. The trading volume of the listing agreement was 30,000 tons, and the trading volume of the bulk agreement was 400,000 tons [58]. - The carbon market is in a policy window period. The trading price fluctuates greatly, but the price center is stable. The trading activity has cooled down, and it is recommended that enterprises with demand consider buying on dips [58][59]. 3.2.15 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - An accident in the Port of Livorno, Italy, led to a 24 - hour port - wide strike, paralyzing container operations and causing a backlog of goods [60]. - The container freight rate is expected to decline in March. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to short the 04 contract on rallies [61][62].