Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the short - term, the market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle. The overall market atmosphere is under certain suppression, but in the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bull market is expected to continue. Different industries have their own supply - demand situations and influencing factors, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed based on these [39][45]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance Stock Index - Market Information: The annualized basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter are presented. For example, IF's ratios are 4.70%/2.97%/5.48%/4.74% [2]. - Strategy View: Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, US tariff policy, RMB exchange rate, and AI business, the stock index is expected to have a relatively strong performance [3]. Treasury Bond - Market Information: The closing prices and changes of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts on Thursday are provided. There are also news about Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the stance of the Bank of Japan. The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan [4]. - Strategy View: Although inflation recovery has potential suppression on the bond market, and the endogenous power of economic recovery is not stable, the capital side is expected to remain loose. The bond market is expected to continue to oscillate [6]. Precious Metals - Market Information: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver have declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are reported. The precious metal prices are in horizontal consolidation, with support from Trump's tariff plan and the US - Iran nuclear negotiation, and resistance from the Fed's officials' statements and the expectation of stable US short - term interest rates [7]. - Strategy View: The precious metal prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference ranges of 11,300 - 12,000 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: Affected by the US - Iran negotiation and other factors, copper prices are in oscillatory adjustment. LME inventory has increased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have also changed. The spot discount in the East China region has expanded [11]. - Strategy View: The US tariff policy provides emotional support, but the refined copper supply is relatively excessive. Short - term copper prices are expected to be oscillatory, with reference ranges of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars/ton for LME copper [12]. Aluminum - Market Information: Aluminum prices have adjusted. LME inventory has decreased, and domestic inventory has increased. The spot discount in the East China region has narrowed [13]. - Strategy View: The short - term price support is strong. The reference ranges are 23,400 - 23,900 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3,100 - 3,170 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [14]. Zinc - Market Information: Zinc prices have declined. The social inventory of zinc ingots in China has increased, and the downstream enterprise start - up rate is average [15][16]. - Strategy View: The zinc industry in China shows a weak trend. Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices. The zinc ore TC has stopped falling and stabilized [16]. Lead - Market Information: Lead prices have increased. Both domestic and foreign inventories have risen rapidly, and the industrial situation is weak [17]. - Strategy View: The strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises may support the lead price in the short - term. It is necessary to observe the start - up of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [17]. Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices have declined. The prices of nickel ore are stable, and the price of nickel iron has increased [18]. - Strategy View: The supply of nickel is shrinking, and nickel prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference ranges of 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [19]. Tin - Market Information: Tin prices are in oscillatory operation. The inventory has decreased, and the supply and demand are marginally loose [20]. - Strategy View: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference ranges of 380,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton for domestic tin and 48,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton for LME tin [21]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The price of lithium carbonate has increased. The production has increased, and the inventory has decreased [22]. - Strategy View: Affected by the export ban, the short - term spot shortage is expected to continue. It is necessary to be cautious about the increase of selling orders. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 164,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - Market Information: The alumina index has declined. The spot price in Shandong has increased, and the overseas price is stable. The inventory has increased [24]. - Strategy View: The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton for the AO2605 contract [26]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: Stainless steel prices have increased. The raw material prices have changed, and the inventory has increased [27]. - Strategy View: The supply pressure will be relieved, and the price has a strong bottom support. It is recommended to be bullish, with a reference range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of casting aluminum alloy has increased. The inventory has changed, and the trading volume has increased [29]. - Strategy View: The cost has support, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have declined. The inventory and trading volume have changed [32]. - Strategy View: The black series is in a bottom - game stage. It is expected to oscillate within a range with a weak center of gravity in the short - term. It is necessary to focus on the demand recovery and policy trends [33]. Iron Ore - Market Information: Iron ore prices have declined. Some steel enterprises in North China will implement emission reduction measures during important meetings [34]. - Strategy View: The overseas supply has recovered, and the demand is okay. The price is expected to oscillate weakly and stably. It is necessary to pay attention to domestic terminal demand and policy guidance [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Information: The prices of coking coal and coke have declined. The spot prices have different changes, and the basis is positive [36]. - Strategy View: In the short - term, the upward catalysis of coking coal is weak. It may face a callback risk in March - May, but it may rise in the second half of 2026 [39]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: Glass prices have declined, and the inventory has increased. Soda ash prices are stable, and the inventory has increased [40][42]. - Strategy View: Glass is expected to oscillate, with a reference range of 1,025 - 1,100 yuan/ton. Soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly and stably, with a reference range of 1,140 - 1,200 yuan/ton [41][43]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: Manganese silicon prices have increased, and ferrosilicon prices have also risen slightly [44]. - Strategy View: The future market is mainly affected by the black market and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: Industrial silicon prices have declined, and polysilicon prices have also decreased [48][50]. - Strategy View: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices are in oscillatory operation. The start - up rates of tire enterprises are low, and the inventory has increased [53][54]. - Strategy View: It is recommended to trade according to the short - term trend of the disk and set stop - losses. It is also recommended to go long on NR and short on RU2609 [56]. Crude Oil - Market Information: Crude oil prices have declined, and the inventory data of related products have changed [57]. - Strategy View: It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [58]. Methanol - Market Information: Methanol prices have changed, and the MTO profit has increased [59]. - Strategy View: It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [60]. Urea - Market Information: Urea prices have changed, and the basis is negative [61]. - Strategy View: It is recommended to short urea due to the expected negative fundamentals [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The prices and basis of pure benzene and styrene have changed. The supply and demand sides have different performances [63]. - Strategy View: It is recommended to take profits gradually as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired [64]. PVC - Market Information: PVC prices have declined. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [66]. - Strategy View: The domestic supply - demand situation is poor, and the fundamentals are weak [67]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: Ethylene glycol prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [68]. - Strategy View: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. There is a risk of rebound [69]. PTA - Market Information: PTA prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [70]. - Strategy View: The inventory cycle is about to end. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [71]. p - Xylene - Market Information: p - Xylene prices have declined. The load and inventory have changed [72]. - Strategy View: It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: PE prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory has changed [74]. - Strategy View: The PE valuation has room to decline, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: PP prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory pressure is high [76]. - Strategy View: It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [78]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market Information: Pig prices have different changes. The actual supply pressure has been reduced [80]. - Strategy View: The spot price is expected to be weak, but there may be support for the far - month contracts [81]. Eggs - Market Information: Egg prices are mainly stable. The supply is normal, and the market digestion speed is okay [82]. - Strategy View: The short - term spot price decline is limited. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The export and production data of soybeans in the US and Brazil are provided. The domestic soybean inventory has changed [84]. - Strategy View: The protein meal price may be bottoming out due to the increase in import costs [86]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: The production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia are provided. The domestic oil inventory has increased [87]. - Strategy View: The short - term soybean oil price is stronger. It is recommended to buy when the oil prices stop falling at low levels [88]. Sugar - Market Information: The production data of sugar in India, Brazil, and Thailand are provided. The domestic import data are also given [89][90]. - Strategy View: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the international sugar market. The domestic sugar price is suppressed by high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [91]. Cotton - Market Information: The US cotton export data and the domestic cotton inventory data are provided [92]. - Strategy View: It is recommended to buy on dips if the downstream start - up rate after the Spring Festival is good [93].
宏观金融类：文字早评2026/02/27星期五-20260227
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-02-27 01:26