格林大华期货早盘提示：国债-20260227

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond sector is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Thursday, the main contracts of bond futures generally declined, and they may experience short - term volatility. It is necessary to continue monitoring the trend of the A - share market. For trading - type investments, band operations are recommended [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the main contracts of bond futures mostly opened lower, with continuous declines in the morning session and horizontal fluctuations in the afternoon. As of the close, the 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2606 dropped 0.53%, the 10 - year T2606 fell 0.10%, the 5 - year TF2606 declined 0.08%, and the 2 - year TS2606 decreased 0.03% [1] Important Information - Open market: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 400 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market slightly decreased compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.37% (1.38% in the previous trading day), and that of DR007 was 1.48% (1.51% in the previous trading day) [1] - Cash bond market: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank government bonds mostly increased compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2 - year government bond rose 0.49 basis points to 1.37%, the 5 - year increased 1.31 basis points to 1.56%, the 10 - year climbed 1.30 basis points to 1.83%, and the 30 - year jumped 4.01 basis points to 2.30% [1] - AI model data: From the 9th - 15th, the weekly call volume of Chinese models on the OpenRouter platform reached 4.12 trillion Tokens, surpassing that of US models for the first time. From the 16th - 22nd, the weekly call volume of Chinese models soared to 5.16 trillion Tokens, a 127% increase in three weeks, while that of US models dropped to 2.7 trillion Tokens. Four of the top - five models on the platform are from Chinese manufacturers, accounting for 85.7% of the total call volume of the top 5. The users of this platform are mainly overseas developers, with US users accounting for 47.17% and Chinese developers only 6.01% [1] Market Logic - In January, the social financing scale in China increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, exceeding the market expectation of 6.51 trillion yuan and an increase of 165.4 billion yuan year - on - year. The net financing of government bonds in January increased by 976.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 283.1 billion yuan [1][2] - In January, RMB loans under the credit caliber increased by 4.71 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the market expectation of 4.5 trillion yuan but a year - on - year decrease of 420 billion yuan [1][2] - In January, the sales price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous month [2] - In January, China's overall inflation level moderately rebounded. The core CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the PPI rose by 0.4% month - on - month [2] - In January, the official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.3%, and the service industry business activity index was 49.5%, both below the boom - bust line, indicating a moderate economic situation in January [2] - The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at necessary levels, ensuring that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases" and the guarantee for key areas "only strengthens" [2] - The central bank stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to keep the overall social financing cost at a low level, gradually play the role of government bond trading in liquidity management, and maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [2] - On Thursday, the Wind All - A Index fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the day, closing with a small T - line, up 0.21% for the day. The trading volume was 2.56 trillion yuan, slightly larger than the previous trading day's 2.48 trillion yuan [2] Trading Strategies - For trading - type investments, band operations are recommended [2]