格林大华期货早盘提示：贵金属-20260227

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The latest US economic data is divided, with economic growth falling short of expectations and inflation exceeding expectations, increasing policy uncertainty and market concerns about the US economy falling into stagflation. The ambiguity of US trade policy weakens investors' confidence in US assets and intensifies global market volatility. Fed officials have signaled cautious rate cuts, suppressing gold's safe - haven buying in the short term. The geopolitical tension between Iran and the US persists, and the new round of negotiations between the two countries faces uncertainty [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - COMEX gold futures fell 0.47% to $5201.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 3.02% to $88.86 per ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract fell 0.25% to 1146.04 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract fell 2.93% to 22219 yuan per kilogram [1]. 3.2 Important Information - As of February 26, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust increased by 0.28 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 1097.9 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust remained unchanged from the previous day, with the current holding at 16079.74 tons [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 96.0%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by April is 17.3%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 82.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.6%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by June is 43% [1]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 212,000, lower than the market forecast of 216,000 and the previous value of 206,000 [1]. - The indirect negotiation between Iran and the US ended. Iran's foreign minister said the negotiation made good progress, with differences between the two sides but close to reaching a consensus in some areas. The two sides will hold a technical negotiation on March 2 [1]. - India has relaxed the investment scope of active equity funds, allowing more funds to be allocated to gold and silver [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - The US Customs stopped collecting the tariff ruled illegal by the Supreme Court on February 24. Trump's 10% "global tariff" took effect on February 24, and on Wednesday, US Trade Representative Greer said the US would issue an announcement on a 15% tariff [1]. - The initial value of the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 1.4%, with the government shutdown dragging down GDP by about 1 percentage point, far lower than the expected 3.0%. The US core PCE price index in December increased by 3.0% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.9%, and increased by 0.4% month - on - month, indicating that inflationary pressure still exists [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy Investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks due to the uncertainty of the new round of negotiations between the US and Iran [2].