宁证期货今日早评-20260227

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Natural rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly due to supply contraction in Southeast Asian producing areas, rising raw material prices, and expected demand improvement [1] - Silver is likely to experience high - level fluctuations in the medium term as employment data improvement weakens the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts [1] - Crude oil negotiation has a high difficulty in reaching an agreement, with supply pressure remaining. Short - term trading is recommended [3] - PTA is expected to have a short - term correction as the supply - demand pattern weakens and there is a lack of new drivers [3] - Coking coal's spot price is expected to fluctuate, and the futures price may have wide - range fluctuations due to capital sentiment [4] - Rebar steel price may return to a volatile and wait - and - see state in the short term as downstream construction sites are not fully resumed [4] - Lithium carbonate prices are likely to rise in the short term due to tight supply - demand and supply risks [5] - The downward space of live hog futures prices is limited, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts [7] - Palm oil is expected to fluctuate around the current price in the short term, and attention should be paid to export data in early March [7] - Soybean meal prices are expected to stabilize, rebound, and fluctuate strongly in the short term [8] - Gold is likely to remain in high - level fluctuations in the medium term as the US - Iran negotiation has no substantial progress and Fed officials' remarks weaken rate - cut expectations [8] - Ten - year treasury bonds are under pressure and are expected to have a triangular convergent fluctuation [9] - Methanol is expected to fluctuate slightly weakly in the short term due to high inventory and weakening demand [9] - Float glass is expected to operate weakly in the short term due to stable supply, weak demand, and high inventory [10] - PVC is expected to have a price - pressured and weak - fluctuating market in the short term due to sufficient supply and inventory accumulation [11] - Copper is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to high inventory and slow downstream resumption [11] - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short term as high inventory may suppress price increase if demand recovery is weak [12] Summary by Commodity Natural Rubber - Thailand's raw material prices are rising, with cup rubber at 56.8 baht/kg and glue at 68 baht/kg. Vietnam's January exports decreased by 24%. China's social inventory increased by 5.4% to 136.6 million tons as of February 23 [1] Silver - US initial jobless claims were 212,000 last week, slightly better than expected, weakening the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts [1] Crude Oil - The US - Iran nuclear negotiation continues, with the US putting forward tough demands and Iran rejecting some. Technical negotiations will be held on March 2 in Vienna [3] PTA - Social inventory is 3.415 billion tons, up 158,400 tons. Capacity utilization is 76.53%, and polyester capacity utilization is around 78.81% [3] Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 68.2%, up 19.4% week - on - week. Raw coal daily output is 1.516 million tons, up 430,000 tons [4] Rebar Steel - As of February 26, weekly output decreased by 3.10% to 1.651 million tons, factory inventory increased by 5.32% to 2.3284 million tons, and social inventory increased by 14.71% to 5.6776 million tons [4] Lithium Carbonate - The spot price increased, with battery - grade at 175,000 yuan/ton and industrial - grade at 173,350 yuan/ton. The weekly output is 20,600 tons, and the social inventory decreased by about 3,170 tons [5] Live Hogs - On February 26, the national average pork price decreased by 0.5% to 17.93 yuan/kg. Northern prices are stable and strong, while southern prices are weak [7] Palm Oil - From February 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.25% month - on - month, with a 16.78% decrease in fresh fruit bunch yield [7] Soybean Meal - On February 26, domestic spot prices were weak and stable, with some small declines. Market trading sentiment improved slightly [8] Gold - The third round of US - Iran indirect negotiation ended, with differences still existing. The next technical negotiation will be held in Vienna [8] Ten - year Treasury Bonds - The sixth round of China - US economic and trade consultations is about to be held, and the risk - aversion sentiment has cooled down [9] Methanol - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,197 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. Port inventory is 1.4467 billion tons, up 145,000 tons [9] Float Glass - The average开工率 is 70.61%, and the average weekly profit is - 166.55 yuan/ton. The total inventory of sample enterprises is 76.008 million heavy boxes, up 37.32% [10] PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type is 4,720 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. Capacity utilization is 80.09%, up 0.83% [11] Copper - As of February 26, the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory reached 531,700 tons, a historical high [11] Aluminum - As of February 26, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major Chinese markets reached 1.175 million tons, up 50,000 tons from February 24 [12]