山金期货黑色板块日报-20260227

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - For the rebar and hot-rolled coil sector, the market is currently in a holiday mode with weak supply and demand. It's expected to start up after the Lantern Festival. The market's demand expectation for 2026 is relatively weak. Although the futures prices have rebounded significantly, whether it's a reversal remains to be seen. Due to the low current valuation, the downside space may be limited [2]. - For the iron ore sector, the market is still in the holiday mode and is expected to enter the consumption peak season after the Lantern Festival. Steel and hot metal production are at seasonal lows. The supply side's short - term shipments are expected to remain low but will gradually recover. The port inventory has reached a record high. The iron ore has a technical rebound, but it's uncertain if it has bottomed out [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - News: Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Seven Measures" to further reduce housing purchase restrictions. Some steel enterprises in North China received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the 2026 National Two Sessions, with a requirement of at least 30% reduction in blast furnace load [2]. - Supply and Demand: Before the Spring Festival, the output of rebar from 247 sample steel mills decreased significantly, the apparent demand declined month - on - month, the total inventory continued to rise, the total output of the five major varieties decreased significantly, and the inventory continued to increase. The apparent demand is at a low level for the year [2]. - Technical Analysis: The futures prices rebounded significantly, but whether it forms a reversal is uncertain. The downside space may be limited due to low valuation [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and trade cautiously [2]. - Data: A large amount of data on prices, basis, spreads, production, inventory, and apparent demand are provided, such as the rebar主力合约收盘价 at 3050 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous day and 1.64% from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Demand: The market is in the holiday mode and is expected to enter the consumption peak season after the Lantern Festival. The output of the five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills continued to decline this week, and the daily average hot metal output is expected to decrease month - on - month [4]. - Supply: Affected by seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere, short - term shipments are expected to remain low but will gradually recover with improved weather. The arrival volume has rebounded, and the port inventory has reached a record high [4]. - Technical Analysis: Driven by the Shanghai real - estate new policy and the rise of rebar, iron ore has a technical rebound, but it's uncertain if it has bottomed out [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold short positions lightly [4]. - Data: A large amount of data on prices, basis, spreads, shipments, sea freight, inventory, etc. are provided, such as the DCE铁矿石主力合约结算价 at 762 yuan/dry ton, down 0.07% from the previous day and 0.85% from the previous week [5]. 3.3 Industry News - In January, global crude steel production decreased by 6.5% year - on - year to 147.3 million tons, and China's steel production in January decreased by 13.9% to 75.3 million tons [7]. - As of the week of February 26, rebar production decreased, factory inventory increased for six consecutive weeks, social inventory increased for eight consecutive weeks, and apparent demand increased [7]. - In mid - February 2026, key steel enterprises' production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel increased, and the steel inventory increased [8]. - The average national ton - coke profit of 30 independent coking plants was - 7 yuan/ton this week [8]. - As of February 26, the float glass industry's start - up rate was 70.61%, and the capacity utilization rate was 74.49%, with the daily output increasing by 0.41% [8].