格林期货早盘提示：三油，两粕-20260227

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The vegetable oil market shows a slightly differentiated and overall strong trend. The market is affected by factors such as international crude oil prices, export data, and domestic policies. For double - meal, it maintains a relatively strong trend, and the market is influenced by factors like overseas soybean prices, customs inspection policies, and import and export expectations [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Performance - On February 26, the vegetable oil sector was overall strong with some differentiation. The closing prices of main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil had varying degrees of decline or increase in positions. For example, the Y2605 soybean oil contract closed at 8198 yuan/ton, down 0.36% day - on - day, with a daily decrease of 5259 lots [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - NYMEX crude oil futures closed lower on February 26. The US and India reached a temporary trade agreement framework, and the US will reduce the so - called reciprocal tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. The US Environmental Protection Agency will submit a new biofuel blending volume authorization proposal. Malaysian palm oil exports from February 1 - 20 and 1 - 25 decreased compared to the same period in January, but exports to China increased. Indian buyers have locked in a large amount of soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026. As of the end of the 7th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased week - on - week and year - on - year [1][2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US - Iran conflict and the improvement of US soybean export expectations and domestic biodiesel policy expectations support the strength of US soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil is boosted by international crude oil and US soybean oil but is dragged down by poor export data and the upcoming seasonal production recovery period. Domestically, after the end of traders' restocking and the arrival of the traditional off - season, if reserve soybeans are not auctioned, soybean oil inventory will continue to decline; if a large number of reserve soybeans are auctioned, the supply will be sufficient and the basis will be under pressure. Palm oil follows the overseas vegetable oil trend, and the supply shortage of rapeseed oil is expected to be alleviated, with its increase limited [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, existing long positions in oils should be held, and new long positions can be slightly absorbed on pullbacks. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for different contracts [2] 3.2 Double - Meal Market 3.2.1 Market Performance - On February 26, driven by macro funds and with the fundamental pressure postponed, the double - meal maintained a relatively strong trend. The main and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal had different price changes and position increases [2] 3.2.2 Important Information - As of February 21, 2026, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 32.3%. The ANEC lowered the February soybean export forecast by 800,000 tons to 10.69 million tons. Analysts expect the US soybean net sales volume from February 1 - 19 to be between 400,000 and 1 million tons. There are rumors that the customs inspection time in South and East China will be extended by 5 days. As of the end of the 8th week of 2026, the inventory of imported soybeans in China increased, the inventory of soybean meal decreased, and the inventory of imported rapeseed increased [2][3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the improvement of the US soybean trade prospects boosts the US soybean futures price. The market is affected by the news of extended customs inspection, and the theoretical crushing profit weakens, causing the futures price to rise slightly. The market is also concerned about the import soybean auction. In the spot market, the oil mill's fixed - price is stable, the near - month basis is lowered, and the actual transaction price drops. For rapeseed meal, the market digests the policy of extended customs inspection and has expectations of opening up Canadian rapeseed meal imports. The post - Spring Festival spot market is mainly for rigid demand procurement, and the basis quotation has a risk of decline [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - In the medium term, the double - meal maintains a wide - range oscillation pattern. Do not over - chase the high. Long positions at low levels can be gradually liquidated for profit, and new purchases can be made after pullbacks. Wait for the supply pressure to materialize in the long term. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for different contracts [3]