对二甲苯：跟随成本波动，区间震荡市PTA：跟随成本波动，区间震荡市MEG：区间震荡市，多PTA空MEG

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - PX, PTA, and MEG are all in a range - bound market. PX and PTA follow cost fluctuations, and it is recommended to go long on PTA and short on MEG [1][8] - The industry may enter a positive feedback pattern under the expectation of downstream order recovery, and attention should be paid to spring - summer orders [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous trading day were 7382, 5260, 3700, 6658, and 483.6 respectively, with price drops of - 50, - 52, - 47, - 64, and - 4.7, and declines of - 0.67%, - 0.98%, - 1.25%, - 0.95%, and - 0.96% [2] - The PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4, and SC2 - 3 spreads on the previous trading day were - 6, - 10, - 134, - 86, and 2.2 respectively, with price changes of - 26, - 24, - 16, 12, and - 2.8 compared to the previous day [2] Spot Market - The previous day's prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, Naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 930.67 dollars/ton, 5235 yuan/ton, 3612 yuan/ton, 632.5 dollars/ton, and 72.04 dollars/barrel respectively, with price changes of 2, - 50, - 46, 16.5, and 1.25 compared to the previous day [2] - The previous day's PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 297.55, 412.68, 106.87, 240.63, and - 4.34 respectively, with price changes of - 2.66, - 17.01, 81.21, 40.06, and 0 compared to the previous day [2] PX Fundamental Data - On February 26, the PX price rebounded slightly, with two April Asian spot transactions at 929. The PX valuation on that day was 931 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars from February 25 [3] - A 700,000 - ton PX plant in East China postponed its maintenance from early March to early April for 50 - 60 days, and a 2 - million - ton PX plant of a large PX manufacturer in East China plans to shut down for maintenance for 30 - 40 days in mid - March [3] - The operating rate of PX on February 26 was estimated to be 89%, the same as on February 12 before the Chinese New Year holiday [5] PTA Fundamental Data - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is expected to restart on February 27, and a 1.25 - million - ton PTA plant in South China is expected to restart at the end of February or early March [5] - By Thursday, the domestic PTA load was adjusted to 76.6% [5] MEG Fundamental Data - As of February 26, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 79.02%, and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 84.03% [5] Polyester Fundamental Data - A low - melting short - fiber plant in China has restarted, and a direct - spinning polyester staple fiber plant in Jiangyin has basically returned to full - load operation [5] - As of Thursday, the domestic polyester load was around 79.7%, and the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was around 68% [5][6] - On February 26, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were still sluggish, with an average sales rate of just over 20% by 3:30 pm. The sales rates of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber plants were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 46% by 3:00 pm [6] Suggestions - For PX, go long on PXN and conduct a 5 - 9 calendar spread. The supply side has a high operating rate, and attention should be paid to plant maintenance. The demand side is expected to enter a positive feedback pattern [7][8] - For PTA, although the valuation has weakened, it will enter a de - stocking pattern from March, and attention should be paid to spring - summer orders [8] - For MEG, it is in a range - bound market. Go long on PTA and short on MEG. Pay attention to the rotation maintenance of Yulin Chemical's plant, and the price is expected to operate within a range [8]