宝城期货原油早报2026-02-27-20260227

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil futures contracts are expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being mainly oscillatory, with an intraday tendency towards a weak oscillation [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - Time - period Views - For the short - term (within one week), the crude oil 2604 contract is expected to be oscillatory [1]. - For the medium - term (two weeks to one month), the crude oil 2604 contract is expected to be oscillatory [1]. - For the intraday view, the crude oil 2604 contract is expected to oscillate weakly and run weakly [1][5]. - Driving Logic - After the Spring Festival, the sharp rise of the domestic crude oil futures 2604 contract was driven by geopolitical risk premium, tight supply - demand balance, and domestic resumption of work demand. The repeated Middle - East situation is the core variable of oil - price fluctuations [5]. - During the Spring Festival, the limited progress of the US - Iran nuclear - agreement negotiation, the US troop increase in the Middle East, and Iran's military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz intensified market concerns about supply interruption. The Strait of Hormuz is the passage for about 20% of the world's seaborne crude oil, and any tension escalation may increase the risk premium of oil prices [5]. - As short - term geopolitical risks gradually weaken, the significant increase in US commercial crude - oil inventories announced by the EIA suppresses oil prices. Although crude - oil futures prices opened low and closed high on Thursday night, there are differences between bulls and bears, so it is expected that domestic crude - oil futures may maintain a weakly oscillatory trend on Friday [5].