Zhao Yin Guo Ji·2026-02-27 01:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Trip.com Group (TCOM) with a target price of US$83.00, indicating a potential upside of 58.8% from the current price of US$52.27 [3][16]. Core Insights - Trip.com Group reported total revenue of RMB15.4 billion for 4Q25, representing a year-over-year increase of 20.8%, which exceeded Bloomberg consensus estimates by 4% [1]. - The company demonstrated resilience in travel demand, with significant growth in corporate travel, package tours, and other segments [1]. - For 2025, total revenue and non-GAAP operating profit are projected to grow by 17% and 11% year-over-year, respectively [1]. - Despite facing sentiment-driven headwinds, Trip.com’s competitive advantages, including robust supply chain capabilities and high service quality, are expected to support long-term growth [1]. - The international expansion strategy is on track to unlock further development opportunities for the company [1]. Financial Summary - For FY25, Trip.com is expected to generate revenue of RMB62.51 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 17.1% [2]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25 is projected at RMB31.84 billion, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 76.5% [2]. - The company’s adjusted EPS for FY25 is estimated at RMB46.23, with a P/E ratio of 7.0 [2]. - The forecast for FY26 includes total revenue of RMB71.58 billion, with a growth rate of 14.5% year-over-year [11]. Revenue Breakdown - Domestic hotel booking volume growth is expected to be in the low teens year-over-year, while outbound air ticket and hotel bookings are anticipated to grow at a similar rate [9]. - The international business segment, including Trip.com and Skyscanner, accounted for 18% and 7% of group-level revenue in 4Q25, with Trip.com’s revenue growth exceeding 60% year-over-year [9]. - The company is targeting a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 28.3% for FY26, slightly down from 28.9% in FY25, due to the contribution from the international business which is still in a loss-making stage [11].