PP：C3原料表现偏强，PDH检修仍高：LLDPE：原油风险待释放，自身供需格局一般

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - LLDPE has risks from crude oil yet to be released, and its supply - demand pattern is average; PP's C3 raw material is strong, and PDH maintenance is still high [1]. - For LLDPE, after - festival demand for mulching films is expected to improve, and the packaging film industry is expected to recover around the Lantern Festival. The supply - side has new production from BASF Zhanjiang, and the maintenance plan in February has decreased. The fundamental contradiction is not significant after inventory transfer before the Spring Festival [2]. - For PP, C3 is affected by Saudi supply disruptions with strong cost support, and PDH maintenance is still high. There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between existing supply and demand intensifies. The downstream new orders follow up based on rigid demand, and the overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited. Focus on the marginal changes of PDH devices under deep losses [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of L2605 was 6668, with a daily decline of 1.61%, the trading volume was 450673, and the position changed by 42552. The closing price of PP2605 was 6675, with a daily decline of 0.67%, the trading volume was 445413, and the position changed by 27684 [1]. - Spread Data: The 05 - contract basis of L2605 was - 168 (previous day: - 167), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 74 (previous day: - 70). The 05 - contract basis of PP2605 was - 135 (previous day: - 130), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 17 (previous day: - 23) [1]. - Spot Price Data: In the north, the LLDPE spot price was 6500 yuan/ton (previous day: 6610), and the PP spot price was 6520 yuan/ton (previous day: 6560). In the east, the LLDPE spot price was 6600 yuan/ton (previous day: 6680), and the PP spot price was 6540 yuan/ton (previous day: 6590). In the south, the LLDPE spot price was 6700 yuan/ton (previous day: 6800), and the PP spot price was 6700 yuan/ton (previous day: 6730) [1]. 3.2 Spot News - For polyolefins, Exxon Huizhou had maintenance, and the linear production scheduling decreased slightly. For PP, Zhejiang Petrochemical switched production yesterday, and the drawstring production scheduling dropped from the holiday high to a neutral level [1]. - Downstream terminals resumed work relatively late. With the decline of the futures price, the basis - priced goods had obvious price advantages and the transactions were acceptable. The transactions of non - standard grades were weak, and the quotes were loosened and adjusted downwards [1]. - Low - priced goods from the Middle East and the United States will arrive at ports in early March, but the downstream buying follow - up is limited [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - For LLDPE, the crude oil price increased during the festival, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, the ethylene monomer is stable, and the profit of the PE ethylene process is acceptable. The supply - side has new production from BASF Zhanjiang, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival and the destocking slope after the festival [2]. - For PP, C3 is affected by Saudi supply disruptions with strong cost support, and PDH maintenance is still high. There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between existing supply and demand intensifies. The downstream new orders follow up based on rigid demand, and the overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited. Focus on the marginal changes of PDH devices under deep losses [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is - 1, and the trend intensity of PP is 0 [4].