2026-02-27期：所长早读-20260227

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, trend intensities for various commodities are given, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment: - Strongly bullish: Iron ore, tin, cotton, palm oil, soybean oil, sugar [57][36][187][170][181] - Bullish: Logs,动力煤 [78][75] - Neutral: Gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, cast - aluminum alloy, platinum, palladium, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, short - fiber, bottle - chip, offset printing paper, pure benzene, soybean meal, soybeans, corn, peanuts [22][25][28][31][38][40][44][50][53][59][63][67][79][88][92][95][100][105][111][114][119][122][125][127][155][158][163][171][174][195] - Bearish: PVC, fuel oil [137][140] - Strongly bearish: Live pigs [193] 2. Core Views 2.1 Exchange Rate - After the holiday, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued its pre - holiday strong trend. On February 26, the on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar reached new highs since April 2023. The appreciation is supported by factors such as the weakening of the US dollar index, the reduction of US tariffs on China, the withdrawal of US dollar long positions, and market expectations for favorable policies. However, there are also factors that may cause the RMB to depreciate in the short term [7]. 2.2 Commodities - Cotton: After the holiday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose due to the increase in foreign markets and technical buying. However, there is no obvious fundamental support, and the futures price has fallen back. It is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend, but further upward movement may require new fundamental drivers [10]. - Manganese silicon: The price of manganese silicon futures rose due to the news of South African mineral tax, but it is mainly an emotional push. Fundamentally, the short - term supply has not decreased, and the price may be under pressure due to high inventory [11][12]. - Steam coal: After the Spring Festival, the steam coal market continued its pre - holiday strong trend, mainly driven by the reduction of imported coal supply. However, in March, the market will enter the traditional off - season, and the upward support for coal prices is expected to weaken [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pre - market Focus - Exchange rate: The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar reached a three - year high, and the pricing is not extremely deviated. The appreciation is supported by multiple factors, and the future trend is affected by both positive and negative factors [7]. - Commodities: The所长 recommends cotton, manganese silicon, and steam coal, with a high attention index of ★★★★. The prices of these commodities are affected by different factors, and their future trends need to pay attention to fundamental changes [10][11][13]. 3.2 Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious metals: Gold is expected to move up in a volatile manner, and silver is in a volatile pattern [22]. - Base metals: Copper's price recovery is restricted by increasing inventory; zinc needs to pay attention to geopolitical disturbances; lead lacks driving forces and is in a volatile state; tin is expected to be strongly volatile; aluminum is in a range - bound state; alumina's supply pressure is not relieved; cast - aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum; platinum is in a box - shaped oscillation; palladium's high - frequency data is weak; nickel still has speculative sentiment, and attention should be paid to the contradiction of nickel ore; stainless steel's cost support center moves up, but the off - season inventory accumulation restricts its elasticity [25][28][31][34][38][40][44]. - Energy and chemicals: Lithium carbonate's supply and demand are tight, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes; industrial silicon should pay attention to the resumption of production of upstream enterprises; polysilicon should pay attention to post - holiday spot transactions; iron ore's price is expected to rise in a volatile manner; rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a volatile and repeated state; ferrosilicon's price fluctuates widely due to sector sentiment; manganese silicon's price is pulled up at a low level by funds; coke and coking coal are in a weakly volatile state; steam coal's price is strong in the short term; logs are expected to be strongly volatile; p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are in a range - bound state; rubber is in a wide - range volatile state; synthetic rubber is in a high - level volatile state; LLDPE has oil price risks to be released, and its supply - demand pattern is average; PP's C3 raw material is strong, and PDH maintenance is still high; caustic soda has large near - month delivery pressure but cost support; pulp is in a volatile state; glass's original sheet price is stable; methanol is in a volatile state; urea is in a short - term volatile state; styrene is in a strongly volatile state; soda ash's spot market has little change; LPG is affected by Middle - East supply disturbances and is waiting for CP to be announced; propylene's supply and demand are tight, and the spot price is stable; PVC is in a weakly volatile state; fuel oil is in a weak state; low - sulfur fuel oil is in a narrow - range volatile state; the container shipping index (European line) should be treated with a volatile mindset; short - fiber and bottle - chip are in a high - level volatile state and should pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations; offset printing paper should be on the sidelines; pure benzene is in a strongly volatile state [50][53][56][59][63][67][73][76][79][88][92][95][100][105][111][114][119][122][125][127][137][140][143][155][158][163]. - Agricultural products: Palm oil's production reduction is realized, and a short - term long - buying strategy on dips can be adopted; soybean oil is strongly affected by the implementation of the US biofuel policy; soybean meal may be volatile due to the slight decline of overnight US soybeans; soybeans' spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong; corn is expected to be strongly volatile; sugar's price - increasing sentiment is spreading; cotton's futures price has回调; eggs are in a weakly volatile state; live pigs' futures price has advanced the trading of inventory accumulation, but it is difficult to reduce inventory in the off - season; peanuts are in a volatile state [167][171][174][178][182][188][191][195].