格林期货早盘提示：尿素-20260227

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the international crude oil fluctuates sharply at a high level. The price of the Indian urea import tender is announced, and the overseas urea price continues to rise. After the Spring Festival, upstream factories have accumulated a large amount of inventory, and are affected by the news that the national reserve will be released from late February to early March. It is expected that the urea price will oscillate within a range. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the progress of agricultural demand [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market Review - On Thursday, the price of the main urea contract 2605 fell by 10 yuan to 1,836 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China mainstream area was 1,830 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions decreased by 858 lots to 264,000 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,334 lots to 283,000 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 218,000 tons, the same as the previous working day and an increase of 21,500 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rate yesterday was 92.57%, a 5.22% increase compared with 87.35% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.176 million tons, an increase of 341,300 tons compared with the previous period (February 11), a 40.89% month-on-month increase. The sample inventory at urea ports is 174,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 8,000 tons [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 33.4%, a month-on-month increase of 8.9%, and the operating rate of melamine is 60.7%, a month-on-month increase of 2.8% [1] - Tender: India's RCF urea import tender, with the latest shipping date on March 31, received 20 suppliers with a total bid volume of over 3.07 million tons. The lowest offer on the east coast is CFR 512 US dollars/ton, and the lowest offer on the west coast is CFR 508 US dollars/ton. India intends to purchase 1.5 million tons in this tender [1] - Import and Export in December 2025: Urea imports were 35.39 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 82.11%; the average import price was 2,963.69 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 52.11%. Urea exports were 278,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 53.75%; the average export price was 398.27 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 56.64% [1] - Oil Price: Positive progress has been made in the new round of negotiations between the United States and Iran, and international oil prices have fallen, but there are still differences between the two sides, and the decline in oil prices has finally narrowed. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract fell 0.21 US dollars/barrel to 65.21 US dollars/barrel, a month-on-month decrease of 0.32%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 04 contract fell 0.10 US dollars/barrel to 70.75 US dollars/barrel, a month-on-month decrease of 0.14%. China's INE crude oil futures 2604 contract fell 3.4 to 486.2 yuan/barrel, and rose 3.6 to 489.8 yuan/barrel in night trading [1] Market Logic - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is unstable, and the international crude oil fluctuates sharply at a high level. The price of the Indian urea import tender is announced, and the overseas urea price continues to rise. After the Spring Festival, upstream factories have accumulated a large amount of inventory, and are affected by the news that the national reserve will be released from late February to early March. It is expected that the urea price will oscillate within a range. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the progress of agricultural demand [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]