软商品：20260227中万期货品种策略日报-20260227

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The global sugar market remains in an overall surplus pattern. The sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere is in an increasing cycle, which drags down the sugar price. However, considering the current low level of raw sugar prices and the lower - than - expected increase in production in major producing countries, the sugar price is expected to maintain a short - term oscillating trend. In China, the sugar supply is seasonally increasing during the peak crushing period of southern sugar mills, and the import of sugar exceeds market expectations, suppressing the market. Therefore, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract has declined slightly but remains at a high level. During the holiday, the price of US cotton rose due to a significant increase in export sales, which boosted the confidence of the Zhengzhou cotton market. Although the domestic factories have a good resumption of work and sufficient inventory, the high price difference between domestic and foreign cotton exerts pressure on Zhengzhou cotton. Supported by orders in the traditional peak season, it is expected to run strongly in the short term [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Futures Market - Price and Volume: For Zhengzhou sugar futures, the prices of contracts 2609, 2605, and 2603 increased by 0.65%, 0.71%, and 0.13% respectively compared to the previous two days. The prices of 11 - number sugar contracts 2603 and 2607 decreased by 1.30% and 0.07% respectively, while the price of 2605 remained unchanged. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to varying degrees [2]. - Price Difference and Basis: The price differences and basis of sugar futures contracts and spot prices have changed. For example, the price difference between SR2605 and SR2509 increased from 4 to 34, and the basis of sugar in Liuzhou and Kunming also changed [2]. - Inventory and Position: The total of sugar warehouse receipts and effective forecasts increased from 15178 to 15949. The non - commercial long and short positions of ICE 11 - number sugar changed, and the long - to - short ratio decreased from 0.42 to 0.40 [2]. Sugar Industry Information - Indian Sugar Policy: On February 25, the Indian Food Ministry announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for March 2026 was 2.25 million tons, 50,000 tons less than the same period last year. Market experts believe that after the announcement of the quota, the domestic sugar price is expected to remain bullish [3]. - Indian Sugar Production Forecast: The Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) released the third forecast of sugar production for the 2025/26 crushing season on February 25. The total sugar production (before ethanol diversion) is expected to be 32.409 million tons, the ethanol diversion is expected to be 3.1 million tons, and the net sugar production (after ethanol diversion) is expected to be 29.292 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12% [3]. Cotton Industry Information - Factory Resumption and Inventory: As of the 26th, downstream factories and traders have mostly resumed work, and logistics has basically recovered. The operating rate of Xinjiang yarn mills has reached about 80% - 90%, and that of yarn mills in Shandong, Henan, Hubei and other inland areas has basically recovered to 70% - 80%. The cotton inventory of yarn mills is temporarily sufficient, mostly maintained at about 35 - 40 days. After the sharp rise in futures prices, yarn mills are highly cautious and have a low desire to stock up [3]. - Market Transaction Situation: Driven by the sharp rise in cotton prices, yarn mills have continuously raised the yarn price after the festival, with an overall increase of 300 - 800 yuan/ton, and some manufacturers have even suspended quoting. However, the market acceptance is weak, new transactions are rare, and traders and weavers are waiting for the market to stabilize. The resumption rate of the weaving link is lower than that of the yarn link, and downstream orders have not been fully issued. Manufacturers expect that there may be a large number of orders in early March [3].