2026年02月27日申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯：申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯-20260227

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is to maintain a bullish tone on platinum and palladium [4] Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensifying due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Short - term disturbances do not change the long - term bullish logic [4] Summary According to Relevant Contents Futures Market - Platinum Futures: For pt2606, pt2608, and pt2610, the current prices are 589.50, 583.00, and 578.90 respectively. They rose by 11.55, 12.20, and 15.00 with percentage changes of 2.00%, 2.14%, and 2.66%. The trading volumes are 9917, 364, and 106 respectively [1] - Palladium Futures: For pd2606, pd2608, and pd2610, the current prices are 446.55, 446.00, and 443.00 respectively. They fell by 10.35, 8.40, and 11.05 with percentage changes of - 2.27%, - 1.85%, and - 2.43%. The trading volumes are 3300, 210, and 19 respectively [1] Spot Market - Platinum Spot: The Shanghai platinum price rose 7.58 to a certain value, with a percentage change of 0.013%. The London platinum price fell 68.00 to 2255.00, with a percentage change of - 0.029%. The prices of Zhou Dafu and Lao Fengxiang platinum also had corresponding changes [1] - Palladium Spot: The Chinese palladium price rose 16.00 to 446.00, with a percentage change of 0.037%. The Russian palladium price rose 296.66 to 4542.48, with a percentage change of 0.070% [1] Inventory - Platinum Inventory: The NYMEX platinum inventory and registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The gold exchange's trading volume decreased by 224.0 kg, and the trading value decreased by 12885.3 ten thousand yuan [1] - Palladium Inventory: The NYMEX palladium inventory and registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1] Related Derivatives and Indexes - Indexes: The US dollar index rose 0.13 to 97.78. The S&P 500 index fell 37.27 to 6908.86. The US Treasury yield fell 0.03 to 4.02. Other indexes also had corresponding changes [1] - Derivatives: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts decreased to varying degrees [1] Macroeconomic News - Fed Policy: The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point cuts, which was in line with market expectations. Fed Chair candidate Waller supported a 25 - basis - point cut [2] - Fed Chair Nomination: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, but this nomination faced opposition in the Senate. Warsh's policy stance was hawkish before but has turned dovish in recent years [2] - China's Economic Data: In January 2026, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The PMIs of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries showed positive trends [2] - PBOC Meeting: The People's Bank of China held a payment - settlement work meeting, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including cross - border payment construction and regulatory improvement [3] Comments and Strategies - Price Movement: As of February 24, 2026, NYMEX platinum and palladium prices rebounded from the lows in late January but were still lower than the highs in late January. The main short - term disturbance was Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh [4] - Macro Factors: The judicial investigation of Powell undermined the US dollar's credibility, and the global central bank gold - buying trend continued. The geopolitical risk in Greenland provided support, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in June remained [4] - Industry Factors: There was a clear supply - demand gap for platinum, and the supply of palladium was rigid. Both had strong demand support [4]