生猪：盘面提前交易累库，淡季去库难度大

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The futures market is trading inventory accumulation in advance, but it is difficult to reduce inventory during the off - season [1] Summary of Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Prices: Henan spot price is 11,030 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton; Sichuan spot price is 10,800 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 100 yuan/ton; Guangdong spot price is 11,360 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton. For futures, the price of live hog 2603 is 10,120 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 275 yuan/ton, live hog 2605 is 11,395 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 70 yuan/ton, and live hog 2607 is 12,360 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: For live hog 2603, the trading volume is 15,271 lots, an increase of 299 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 16,629 lots, a decrease of 8,167 lots from the previous day. For live hog 2605, the trading volume is 54,028 lots, a decrease of 38,690 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 154,348 lots, a decrease of 119 lots from the previous day. For live hog 2607, the trading volume is 9,060 lots, a decrease of 6,783 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 53,361 lots, an increase of 553 lots from the previous day [1] - Spreads: The basis of live hog 2603 is 910 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 375 yuan/ton; the basis of live hog 2605 is - 365 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 170 yuan/ton; the basis of live hog 2607 is - 1330 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 85 yuan/ton. The spread between live hog 2603 and 2605 is - 1275 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 205 yuan/ton, and the spread between live hog 2605 and 2607 is - 965 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 85 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Guangxi Yangxiang registered 100 lots of warehouse receipts for the March contract; Dekang registered 525 lots; Fuyuan registered 22 lots; Muyuan registered 80 lots; COFCO registered 300 lots; Tangrenshen registered 10 lots; Yuexiu registered 99 lots; Tiannong registered 20 lots [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 2, indicating the most bearish view, with the value ranging from - 2 to 2 [3]