铁矿石：预期回暖，矿价震荡上扬

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates a warming of the iron ore market, with prices expected to fluctuate upwards [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of I2605 was 748.5 yuan/ton, down 4.0 yuan/ton (-0.53%). The yesterday's position was 540,573 hands, with an increase of 12,089 hands [1] - Spot Prices: Among imported ores, the price of Carajás Fine (65%) was 878.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton; PB (61.5%) was 750.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan/ton; Jinbuba (61%) was 702.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan/ton; Super Special (56.5%) was 638.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the price of Hanxing (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained unchanged at 899.0 yuan/ton and 817.0 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Basis and Spreads: The basis of I2605 against Super Special increased by 1.8 yuan/ton to 91.8 yuan/ton, and against Jinbuba increased by 0.8 yuan/ton to 69.5 yuan/ton. The spread of I2605 - I2609 decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 16.5 yuan/ton, and I2609 - I2701 remained unchanged at 11.5 yuan/ton. The spread of Carajás Fine - PB increased by 7.0 yuan/ton to 128.0 yuan/ton, PB - Jinbuba increased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 48.0 yuan/ton, and PB - Super Special remained unchanged at 112.0 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On February 25, 2026, five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust the local real - estate policy, which took effect on February 26 [1] - On February 25, it was reported that some steel enterprises in North China had received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the 2026 National Two Sessions. They were required to implement phased emission reduction control from March 4 to March 11, with a blast furnace load reduction of no less than 30% [2] - On February 24, the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said that the two sides of China and the United States were in communication regarding President Trump's visit to China [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [2]