美国 2025 年四季度家庭债务报告点评：局部压力凸显，整体稳健

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Insights - The total household debt in the U.S. reached $18.78 trillion by the end of 2025, with a delinquency rate of 4.81% [3]. - Mortgage balances stood at $13.17 trillion, growing by 4.5% year-on-year, accounting for 70.1% of total household debt [3][5]. - Credit card balances increased to $1.28 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5%, representing 6.8% of total debt [3][6]. - Auto loan balances reached $1.67 trillion, with a growth rate declining to 0.7%, the lowest since 2010, making up 8.9% of total debt [3][6]. - The overall delinquency rate for household debt increased significantly, with a 90+ days delinquency rate of 3.13%, reflecting a rise of 1.22 percentage points since the beginning of the year [3][13]. - The increase in delinquency rates is largely attributed to policy changes affecting student loans, which saw a return to high delinquency rates after a period of forbearance [13][14]. Summary by Sections Household Debt Overview - By the end of 2025, U.S. household debt totaled $18.78 trillion, with a year-to-date increase of approximately $0.74 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 4.1% [5]. - The mortgage balance is the largest component, while credit card and auto loan growth rates have slowed down significantly [6]. Delinquency Rates - The overall delinquency rate for household debt reached 4.81%, with significant increases in both overall and 90+ days delinquency rates [13]. - The delinquency rates for credit cards and auto loans are at their highest levels since 2012, indicating ongoing financial stress among borrowers [14]. Economic Implications - The current economic environment shows that U.S. residents have not over-leveraged themselves, largely due to tightened credit conditions from financial institutions [4]. - The disparity in mortgage and credit card trends reflects a "K-shaped" economic recovery, with lower-income groups facing greater repayment pressures [4][36]. - The report suggests that while mortgage delinquency rates may rise slightly, they are expected to remain manageable due to the high credit quality of mortgage borrowers [19][25].