Haitong Securities International·2026-02-27 02:43Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Galaxy Entertainment [2][6]. Core Insights - Galaxy Entertainment's Q4 2025 results met market expectations, with net revenue reaching HKD 13.83 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, and adjusted EBITDA of HKD 4.3 billion, up 32.7% year-on-year [3][12]. - The company's gaming revenue grew nearly 30% year-on-year, significantly contributing to overall revenue growth, with gaming and non-gaming segments contributing HKD 11.36 billion and HKD 1.74 billion, respectively [13][14]. - The VIP gaming segment showed strong growth, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) reaching HKD 13.95 billion, up 26.5% year-on-year, driven by higher win rates and increased betting amounts [14][15]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 31.1%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [5][15]. - Market share increased to 21.8%, up from 20.2% in Q3 2025 and 19.8% in Q4 2024, reflecting the company's competitive positioning [16]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net revenue for FY 2026 and 2027 to be HKD 52.48 billion and HKD 56.71 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.6% and 8.1% [6][17]. - Gross gaming revenue is expected to reach HKD 52.70 billion and HKD 56.86 billion for FY 2026 and 2027, with growth rates of 7.2% and 7.9% [17]. - The adjusted EBITDA for FY 2026 and 2027 is projected to be HKD 15.07 billion and HKD 16.48 billion, with corresponding EBITDA margins of 28.7% and 29.1% [17].