双碳减排先行，钢铁或迎业绩弹性

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Overweight" [8] Core Insights - The dual carbon policy is entering a substantive execution phase, which may drive a recovery in the steel industry by 2026 due to normalized supply constraints and improved profitability [1][2] - The steel industry's current profitability is at a historical low, with less than 40% of surveyed steel companies reporting profits, indicating a potential for significant earnings elasticity as supply policies tighten [3][4] - Demand is expected to remain stable, supported by resilient exports and upgrades in manufacturing, despite downward pressure from the real estate sector [5] Summary by Sections Supply - The steel supply reduction cycle is entering a substantive phase, with a clear capacity ceiling established, which may lead to profit redistribution [4] - Since 2015, the steel production and domestic demand have been in a long-term decline, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -1.43% from 2020 to 2024 for crude steel production [4] Demand - Demand is not expected to experience strong cyclical expansion, but stability is anticipated due to resilient exports, infrastructure support, and growth in high-end manufacturing and new energy sectors [5] - The real estate sector's contribution to steel demand has decreased to below 20%, reducing the marginal impact of its weakness on overall demand [5] Conclusion - The dual carbon policy may increase industry costs and capital expenditures in the short term, but it is expected to elevate the profitability of the steel industry in the medium to long term by compressing supply and raising industry entry barriers [6]