贵金属数据日报-20260227

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, precious metal prices are expected to enter a range - bound oscillation until there are new changes in tariffs or geopolitical situations. In the long - term, the underlying logic of the precious metal bull market remains solid. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the price center of precious metals still has room to rise. Long - term strategies still recommend buying on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On February 26, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.0% to 1,146.48 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.47% to 22,572 yuan/kilogram [5]. 3.2 Factor Analysis - The US Trade Representative said that the "global import tariff" rate imposed by the US on some countries may reach 15%. The short - term uncertainty of US tariff policy still exists, which may continue to support precious metal prices. On the other hand, the number of new infections is lower than expected, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in June is only half, which restricts the short - term upward rhythm of precious metal prices. For silver, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remains at a low level, and the inventory in New York continues to decline. The market still worries that the situation may continue in March [6]. 3.3 Market Data 3.3.1 Price Data - 2026/2/26: London gold spot price was $5,191.47/ounce, London silver spot price was $89.23/ounce, COMEX gold price was $5,207.90/ounce, COMEX silver price was $89.80/ounce, AU2604 was 1,146.48 yuan/gram, AG2604 was 22,572 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 1,143.78 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 21,730 yuan/kilogram. Compared with February 25, the price changes were 0.0%, - 1.5%, - 0.1%, - 0.7%, - 0.4%, - 2.0%, - 0.3%, - 1.7% respectively [5]. - Spread/Ratio: On February 26, the gold ID - SHFE active price difference was - 2.7 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - 842 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external price difference (TD - London) was - 11.70 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external price difference (TD - London) was - 631 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 50.79, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 58.00, AU2604 - 2602 was 3.62 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 286 yuan/kilogram. Compared with February 25, the changes were - 26.2%, - 8.9%, 16.9%, 0.8%, 1.6%, 0.7%, 10.4%, 17.7% respectively [5]. 3.3.2 Position Data - 2026/2/25: The gold ETF - SPDR position was 1,097.62 tons, the silver ETF - SLV position was 16,079.74282 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 213,432 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 53,517 contracts, the non - commercial net long position was 159,915 contracts, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 36,626 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 12,623 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 24,003 contracts. Compared with February 24, the changes were 0.31%, - 0.17%, 0.29%, 1.37%, - 0.06%, - 0.09%, - 7.89%, 4.57% respectively [5]. 3.3.3 Inventory Data - 2026/2/26: SHFE gold inventory was 105,072 kilograms (unchanged from February 25), SHFE silver inventory was 346,369 kilograms (down 2.66% from February 25). COMEX gold inventory on February 25 was 33,627,539 troy ounces (down 0.22% from February 24), and COMEX silver inventory on February 25 was 361,844,401 troy ounces (down 0.59% from February 24) [5]. 3.3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market Data - 2026/2/26: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.92 (down 0.13% from February 25), the US dollar index was 97.66 (down 0.24% from February 25), the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.45% (up 0.58% from February 25), the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.05% (up 0.25% from February 25), the VIX was 17.93 (down 8.29% from February 25), the S&P 500 was 6,946.13 (up 0.81% from February 25), and NYMEX crude oil was $65.57 (down 0.77% from February 25) [5].