日度策略参考-20260227

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the report Core Views - The stock index is expected to oscillate strongly supported by the policy benefits of the upcoming "Two Sessions". Long - term long positions in stock index futures are recommended to be held [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank indicates interest - rate risks in the short term. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Copper prices are pushed up by recent macro - level positives, but the continuous accumulation of global copper inventories suppresses prices, so short - term copper prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - The non - ferrous metal sector is boosted by recent macro - level positives, but the significant accumulation of domestic aluminum inventories may drag down aluminum prices, with short - term aluminum prices oscillating [1]. - The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, but inventories have further accumulated, so it will oscillate in the short term [1]. - The deadlock in the US - Iran negotiation has raised concerns about Iran's zinc ore supply, providing some support for zinc prices in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work and production of downstream enterprises after the festival [1]. - Due to the Ramadan in Indonesia, the approval progress of nickel ore RKAB quotas is slow, and short - term nickel prices are expected to run strongly. In the long - term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect [1]. - The stainless - steel futures are expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the festival, and short - term low - buying is recommended [1]. - Although the long - term trend of tin prices remains unchanged, investors are advised to focus on risk management and profit protection under short - term high - volatility conditions [1]. - The main support for precious metals is the demand for hedging. However, the third - round indirect negotiation between the US and Iran and the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut may slow down their upward pace in the short term. They are expected to oscillate within a range, and the long - term center of gravity may continue to move up [1]. - Platinum and palladium are still supported by macro - factors such as hedging, but palladium may be impacted by the exemption expectation of Guangjian Minerals. Platinum is recommended to be bought at low prices, and palladium should be observed [1]. - For industrial silicon, there is production increase in the northwest and production decrease in the southwest, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December [1]. - For polysilicon, due to the strong demand for energy storage, battery export rush, and mine - end disturbances, it is recommended to be bullish [1]. - For spot of rebar and hot - rolled coil, it has not fully recovered. Observe the spot start - up situation around the Lantern Festival, and it is recommended to observe unilaterally. For the basis positions of futures and spot given before the festival, look for profit - taking opportunities [1]. - For iron ore, there is sector rotation, but the upward pressure is obvious, and it is not recommended to chase long at this position [1]. - For manganese silicon and silicon iron, the short - term supply and demand continue to be weak, but policy benefits and cost support are positive for prices [1]. - For glass and soda ash, soda ash mainly follows glass. In the medium - term, the supply and demand are more relaxed, and prices are under pressure [1]. - For coking coal and coke, the black - metal spot continues the off - season characteristics before the festival. Considering that downstream demand will start after the "Two Sessions", the market can still expect the prosperity of the peak season in the next two weeks. In the long - term, the market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract [1]. - For palm oil, Malaysia's exports were weak in February, and there is pressure on domestic arrivals. The trends of Malaysian palm oil and US soybean oil are divergent, lacking upward drivers, but the increase of LEVY in Indonesia in March may provide support [1]. - For US soybean oil, it is driven up by the positive factors of biodiesel and the resonance of crude - oil prices, and domestic soybean oil may be supported. However, rapeseed oil and palm oil face greater pressure, and it is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [1]. - For cotton, there is support but no driver in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central "No. 1 Document" in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton - planting area, weather during the planting period, and the peak - season demand from March to April [1]. - For sugar, there is a global surplus and an increase in domestic new - crop supply. The short - selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the futures price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drivers in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - For corn, the progress of grain sales at the grass - roots level is relatively fast, and the inventories at ports and channels are low. Corn prices are expected to oscillate strongly during the grain - selling period. After the festival, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of ground - stored grain, but the expected pressure is limited [1]. - For soybean meal, under the expectation of China's increased purchase of US soybeans and good US soybean crushing, and the disturbance of the extension of customs clearance time in China, the soybean - meal futures have been strong recently. But in the context of the global large - supply pattern, the short - term unilateral expectation is still to oscillate within a range [1]. - For softwood pulp, there was no obvious positive news during the Spring Festival, and the previous supply - side positives have basically faded. It is expected to oscillate between 5200 - 5400 in the short term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory after the festival [1]. - For logs, the spot price has risen, the arrival volume in February has decreased, and the overseas quotation is expected to rise, so the futures price has an upward driving force [1]. - For live pigs, the recent spot price has gradually stabilized, supported by demand, and the slaughter weight has not been fully cleared. The production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. - For crude oil, OPEC+ has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the US - Iran negotiation is still uncertain, and the commodity - market sentiment is bullish with an increase in capital risk preference [1]. - For asphalt, in the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent and it follows crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is relatively high [1]. - For butadiene rubber (BR), the cost - end butadiene has strong support at the bottom, and the overseas cracking - device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long - term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate widely, and there is an upward expectation in the long - term [1]. - For PTA, the domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, domestic demand has declined, and the Spring Festival production reduction of polyester factories has a limited negative feedback on PTA. The short - term energy - price fluctuation risk may be brought by the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East [1]. - For styrene, geopolitics and Trump's tariffs disturb the market. The production economic situation of factories remains stable, and the profit margin exceeds the variable - cost break - even point. The demand is expected to gradually recover from the end of February [1]. - For urea, the export sentiment has slowed down, and the upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is anti - dumping and cost - end support below [1]. - For methanol, it is affected by the Iran situation, and the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The downstream MTO leading devices are shut down, and some enterprises reduce production. The upstream inventory is generally low, and the downstream inventory is generally medium - high [1]. - For PF, crude oil oscillates strongly, the price returns to a reasonable range, the demand is flat during the Spring Festival, and the geopolitical situation intensifies the rise of crude oil [1]. - For PP, the number of overhauls is small, the operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the price returns to a reasonable range, and the geopolitical situation intensifies the rise of crude oil [1]. - For PVC, in 2026, the global production capacity put into operation is small, the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity, and the future expectation is optimistic. The fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1]. - For LPG, the CP price rose in February, and the purchase in March is still relatively tight. The post - festival trend of PG is strong. The overseas cold - wave driving logic is gradually weakening, and the basis is expected to repair and expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to seasonally repair. The short - term demand side of LPG is bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [1]. - For container shipping on the European line, the price increase is generally stable. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumption of flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the price decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1]