黑色金属数据日报-20260227

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market's futures price rally lacks sustainability, and the spot market has weak drivers. The inventory is still accumulating, but the apparent demand has improved seasonally. The key is to observe the post - Lantern Festival demand and policy signals from the Two Sessions [2] - Due to the rumor of South Africa imposing a 15% ecological export tax on manganese ore, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have strengthened. The direct demand is expected to improve with the recovery of hot metal production, but the medium - term supply surplus pressure remains [3] - After a pulse - like rebound, coking coal and coke prices have fallen again. The supply side will recover first, while the recovery of the demand side is expected to be weaker. The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract, and it is recommended that the industry build positions on rallies and that unilateral traders wait and see [5] - Driven by real - estate利好 news, blast furnace restrictions during the Two Sessions, and potential impacts of heavy rain in Brazil on iron ore shipments, the iron ore price has rebounded slightly, but the upward drive is insufficient, and the overall upside is limited by port inventory pressure [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On February 26, for far - month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3097.00 yuan/ton with a 0.06% increase, HC2610 at 3239.00 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase. For near - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3063.00 yuan/ton with a 0.20% increase, HC2605 at 3218.00 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase [1] - The cross - month spreads, such as RB2605 - 2610 at - 34.00 yuan/ton with a 3.00 yuan increase on February 26. The spreads/price ratios/profits, like the coil - to - rebar spread at 155.00 yuan/ton with a - 5.00 yuan change [1] Spot Market - On February 26, Shanghai rebar was at 3200.00 yuan/ton with no price change, Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3210.00 yuan/ton with a - 60.00 yuan decrease. The prices of other spot products also had corresponding changes [1] Steel - The futures price rally lacks continuity, and the spot market has entered an adjustment phase. The inventory is still accumulating, and the apparent demand has improved seasonally. The post - Lantern Festival demand and policy signals from the Two Sessions are key factors [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Affected by the rumor of South Africa imposing a 15% ecological export tax on manganese ore, the prices have strengthened. The direct demand is expected to improve with the recovery of hot metal production, but the medium - term supply surplus pressure remains. The cost support has strengthened, and industrial policies may affect supply [3] Coking Coal and Coke - After a pulse - like rebound, the prices have fallen again. The supply side will recover first, while the demand side's recovery is expected to be weaker. The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract, and it is recommended that the industry build positions on rallies and that unilateral traders wait and see [5] Iron Ore - Driven by real - estate利好 news, blast furnace restrictions during the Two Sessions, and potential impacts of heavy rain in Brazil on iron ore shipments, the price has rebounded slightly, but the upward drive is insufficient, and the overall upside is limited by port inventory pressure [6] Investment Recommendations - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, short - term long positions can be considered at low prices. For coking coal and coke, unilateral traders should wait and see, and cash - and - carry arbitrage positions can be established on rallies [7]