生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260227

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar: The supply of sugar is relatively sufficient, but the fundamental outlook may improve. Zhengzhou sugar futures may continue to bottom - out and fluctuate in the short term [3]. - Pulp: Although Brazilian eucalyptus pulp has announced a price increase and energy prices have strengthened, the improvement in the supply - demand situation of bleached softwood kraft pulp (NBSK) is limited. Before new supply - side positive factors emerge, the upside potential of pulp prices is still limited [4]. - Offset Paper: The cost support for offset paper has weakened, and the spot price is relatively stable. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with the basis [6]. - Cotton: There is still a long - term positive outlook, but the short - term upward momentum is insufficient. The futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [9]. Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector - Apple: Supported by low inventory, the futures price may continue to fluctuate strongly. The overall market logic remains unchanged, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level range - bound and upward trend [11]. - Jujube: The futures price has bottomed out and rebounded, and the contradiction between the futures and spot prices has been alleviated. It is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points for the 2605 contract [12]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - Fresh Fruit and Nut Futures: For Apple 2605, hold long positions cautiously; for Jujube 2605, buy on dips in the short term [20]. - Soft Commodity Futures: For Sugar 2605, wait and see; for Pulp 2605, short on rallies; for Offset Paper 2605, trade in the range; for Cotton 2605, hold long positions cautiously [20]. Second Part: Market News Changes Apple Market - Fundamental Information: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples increased. As of February 26, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas decreased year - on - year [21]. - Spot Market Situation: The transaction in the producing areas ended this week, and the price remained stable. The supply in the sales areas gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, and the price was stable [21][23]. Jujube Market As of February 9, the physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased month - on - month. Due to the dispersed acquisition structure and cautious market expectations, holders tend to sell before the Spring Festival [24]. Sugar Market India has adjusted its sugar production and sales data. Brazil's sugar production in some periods has decreased, but the cumulative production has increased slightly. The yield forecast of the upcoming Brazilian sugarcane crop has been slightly lowered [26]. Pulp Market The Chinese pulp market continues to weaken due to falling futures prices and weakening demand for key resale varieties. The prices of NBSK from Canada and Northern Europe remain stable [29]. Offset Paper Market This week, the inventory days of offset paper decreased, the decline narrowed, the operating rate increased slightly, and the increase also narrowed. The overall inventory reduction speed of the industry has slowed down [30]. Cotton Market In December 2025, the import volume and amount of US textiles and clothing changed, and the sales data of the US clothing industry also showed different trends. Indonesia's cotton imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [31][32]. Third Part: Market Review Futures Market Review The closing prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Apple 2605, Jujube 2605, Sugar 2605, Pulp 2605, and Cotton 2605 are provided [32]. Spot Market Review The spot prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and cotton are presented [41]. Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific text summary is provided in the content, only relevant figures are mentioned. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation The current values, month - on - month changes, year - on - year changes, trend predictions, and recommended strategies of the inter - month spreads of apple, jujube, sugar, and cotton are given [63]. Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific text summary is provided in the content, only relevant figures are mentioned. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation The warehouse receipt quantities, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are provided [96]. Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific text summary is provided in the content, only relevant figures are mentioned.