新能源及有色金属日报：津巴布韦锂矿事件发酵，碳酸锂震荡上行-20260227

Market Analysis - On February 26, 2026, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 187,000 yuan/ton and closed at 173,660 yuan/ton, with a 3.47% change in the closing price compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 402,461 lots, and the open interest was 375,204 lots, down from 377,037 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is -3,540 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 38,451 lots, a change of -74 lots from the previous trading day [1]. Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 168,000 - 178,000 yuan/ton, a change of 11,250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 165,000 - 174,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 11,250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,390 US dollars/ton, a change of 140 US dollars/ton from the previous day [2]. - In December 2025, China's total imports of lithium carbonate were about 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. The import volume of spodumene in December 2025 was about 766,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 19% [2]. - In December 2025, the import volume from Australia was 310,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5% and a month - on - month decrease of 27%, accounting for 40%. The import volume from Zimbabwe was 132,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39% and a month - on - month increase of 20%, accounting for 17%. The import volume from Nigeria was 80,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 59% and a month - on - month decrease of 13%, accounting for 10%. The import volume from South Africa was 109,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month increase of about 109,000 tons [2]. - The spot inventory is 100,093 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,839 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 18,382 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,462 tons; the downstream inventory is 40,021 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,471 tons; other inventories are 41,690 tons, a month - on - month increase of 170 tons. The downstream inventory decreased, while the smelter and other inventories increased. The overall destocking pattern was maintained in February, and the downstream destocking accelerated [2]. Event Impact - The rise of lithium carbonate yesterday was mainly affected by the fermentation of the Zimbabwe lithium mine event. On February 25, the Zimbabwean Ministry of Mines announced an immediate halt to all exports of raw ore and lithium concentrate, and the duration of the export suspension is uncertain. Zimbabwe accounts for about 10% of the global lithium carbonate supply. In 2025, it exported about 1.2 million tons of lithium ore to China, equivalent to about 150,000 tons of lithium carbonate. The impact of this event mainly depends on the duration of the ban. After the rectification, legal mines are still expected to resume exports. Considering the processing time of lithium concentrate and sea - freight transportation time, the impact on supply is expected to lag by about 3 months. Currently, the event's impact is mainly reflected in sentiment, and its impact on supply and demand remains to be observed [3]. Strategy - The current price is oscillating at a high level, mainly dominated by supply - side interference news, but the overall inventory is continuously being destocked, and the fundamentals support an upward trend. For unilateral trading, conduct short - term range operations, pay attention to inventory - end disturbances, and choose the opportunity to go long at low prices [4].