新能源及有色金属日报：成交氛围寡淡，双硅维持震荡-20260227

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range-bound. The supply side has significantly contracted, providing strong price support, but high polysilicon inventories continue to suppress demand, and prices lack upward momentum. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, attention should be paid to the resumption plans of large manufacturers after the Spring Festival and changes in capital sentiment. The upside potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and the progress of inventory reduction, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [2] - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Although the supply side contracted significantly in February, providing support for prices, the demand side remains sluggish due to downstream cost pressures, and the large inventory is being depleted slowly, suppressing price increases. There is no obvious driving force for the "rush to export" phenomenon before April. Wait for the supply-demand game. After the Spring Festival, silicon wafer enterprises have resumed production, but the inventory pressure remains. The recent sharp rise in international silver prices has increased the cost pressure on battery manufacturers. In the short term, focus on the post-festival supply and demand recovery, and in the long term, pay attention to the silver price trend and inventory depletion progress [5] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On February 26, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and rose. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,430 yuan/ton and closed at 8,335 yuan/ton, a change of (-110) yuan/ton or (-1.3)% from the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the main contract 2605 had a position of 325,323 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on February 25, 2026, was 20,817 lots, a change of 0 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 (0) yuan/ton, the price of Xinjiang oxygenated 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1] - SMM statistics show that the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on February 12 was 55.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.89% from the previous week [1] - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of organic silicon DMC was 13,800 - 14,000 (0) yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the demand for downstream polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy decreased to varying degrees, and after the festival, most inquiries were tentative [1] - After the Spring Festival, the market sentiment was flat, and combined with the production cuts of large manufacturers in the traditional off-season, the supply side contracted [1] Polysilicon - On February 26, 2026, the main polysilicon futures contract 2605 fluctuated and fell, opening at 47,545 yuan/ton and closing at 46,315 yuan/ton, a change of -2.59% from the previous trading day's closing price. The position of the main contract reached 39,925 (38,292 the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 8,466 lots [2] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N-type material was 48.00 - 56.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg, and the price of n-type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [2] - According to SMM statistics, polysilicon manufacturers' inventories increased, silicon wafer inventories increased. The latest statistics show that polysilicon inventory was 34.90, a month-on-month change of 2.30%, silicon wafer inventory was 30.06GW, a month-on-month change of 6.14%, the weekly polysilicon output was 20,100.00 tons, a month-on-month change of 0.00%, and the silicon wafer output was 10.05GW, a month-on-month change of -3.18% [2] Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - Silicon wafers: The price of domestic N-type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.13 (0.00) yuan/piece, the price of N-type 210mm was 1.43 (0.00) yuan/piece, and the price of N-type 210R silicon wafers was 1.23 (0.00) yuan/piece [3] - Battery cells: The price of high-efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon 210RN battery cells was 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W. The HJT210 half-cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [3][4] - Components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of N-type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of N-type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.77 (0.00) yuan/W [4] - Recently, according to SMM, the 500,000-kilowatt sand control and photovoltaic integration project in Dalate Banner, invested and constructed by Inner Mongolia Energy Group, has been fully connected to the grid for power generation. The project uses all the industry-leading Longi Green Energy BC second-generation technology Hi-MO 9 component products, marking the large-scale application of this high-efficiency photovoltaic technology in large new energy bases in desert, gobi, and desert areas in China [4] Strategy Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short-term range operation - Inter - delivery spread: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short-term range operation. The main contract is expected to remain volatile in the short term - Inter - delivery spread: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [5][7]