现货成交仍然寡淡，铅价维持震荡格局

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is cautiously bearish [3] Core View - Around the Spring Festival, the lead market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand and continuously increasing inventory. The processing fee at the mine end was stable, the operating rates of primary lead and secondary lead were differentiated, and the losses of secondary lead continued. The terminal lead - acid battery enterprises had centralized holidays, consumption dropped to the bottom, and the social inventory reached a new high in nearly 5 months. After the festival, the resumption of secondary lead production was earlier than the downstream inventory digestion, intensifying the supply - demand mismatch [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On February 26, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$46.37/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,550 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium and discount changed by 0 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 16,550 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium and discount changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 0 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On February 26, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,715 yuan/ton and closed at 16,795 yuan/ton, a change of 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 55,290 lots, a change of - 12,415 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position throughout the trading day was 64,924 lots, a change of - 7,072 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,805 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,700 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,800 yuan/ton and closed at 16,800 yuan/ton, a 0.27% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price rose by 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In Henan, the quotes of holders were at a discount of 230 - 160 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2604 contract, with different selling attitudes and a large price difference, and it was difficult to conclude transactions for supplies with a discount of less than 200 yuan/ton. In Guangdong, Jiangxi and other regions, the ex - factory quotes of smelters' pick - up supplies were at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead, and they were waiting and reluctant to sell. Downstream enterprises made small - volume purchases based on rigid demand, and the inquiry enthusiasm increased slightly compared with the previous two days, but the downstream still mainly consumed the pre - festival inventory, and the overall trading of lead ingot scattered orders was light [2] Inventory - On February 26, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 67,000 tons, a change of 3,100 tons compared with the same period last week. As of February 27, the LME lead inventory was 286,300 tons, with no change compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - It is recommended to sell high and buy low in the range of 16,350 - 16,900 yuan/ton for the main contract of Shanghai lead, but in the first week after the festival, it is still recommended to mainly conduct sell - hedging on rallies, pay attention to the pressure level of 16,950 yuan/ton, and the support level below is 16,300 yuan/ton. On the spot side, postpone the stockpiling and wait for the discount to expand to more than 200 yuan/ton before intervening. Focus on the downstream resumption of work and inventory reduction rhythm after the Lantern Festival. For options, sell call options [3]