美伊谈判分歧较大，避险情绪延续

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View of the Report - The market risk sentiment is rising, and the safe-haven logic remains. It is expected that the gold price will be mainly in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern in the near future, with the Au2604 contract fluctuating in the range of 1,100 yuan/gram - 1,200 yuan/gram. The macro logic of silver is similar to that of gold, but its price volatility is much greater than that of gold. It is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with the Ag2604 contract fluctuating in the range of 22,000 yuan/kilogram - 24,000 yuan/kilogram [8][9] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical situation: The third round of indirect negotiations between the US and Iran ended. Iran's foreign minister said that the two sides are close to reaching a consensus in some areas, and technical negotiations will be held in Vienna next Monday. The mediator, Oman's foreign minister, said the negotiations "made significant progress", but the media reported that the differences between the two sides are still large. The US insists that Iran completely dismantle its nuclear facilities and transfer all enriched uranium out of the country; Iran proposes to stop nuclear activities within a limited period and then resume enrichment activities within a regulated regional framework [1] - Global debt: The Institute of International Finance reported that the global debt scale climbed to a record $348 trillion at the end of last year, an increase of nearly $29 trillion, the fastest growth rate since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, changing the previous structure dominated by households or enterprises. The government debt of countries such as the US and the eurozone accounts for more than $10 trillion [1] - Economic data: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 212,000, compared with an expected 215,000, and the previous value was revised from 206,000 to 208,000 [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On February 26, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,148.68 yuan/gram and closed at 1,146.48 yuan/gram, a change of -0.40% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume on that day was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 1,144.50 yuan/gram and closed at 1,146.04 yuan/gram, a decrease of 0.04% from the afternoon closing price [2] - On February 26, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 22,975.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 22,572.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -1.98% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume on that day was 357,610 lots, and the open interest was 173,529 lots. In the night session, it opened at 22,088 yuan/kilogram and closed at 22,219 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of 1.56% from the afternoon closing price [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 26, 2026, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.002%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.574%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 777 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by 315 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 224,651 lots, a change of -16.82% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by -3,175 lots, and the short positions changed by -3,518 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 946,281 lots, a change of -3.54% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The position of the gold ETF yesterday was 1,097.62 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 16,080 tons, a decrease of 28 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On February 26, 2026, the domestic premium of gold was 6.38 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was 536.47 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange yesterday was about 50.79, a change of 1.62% from the previous trading day, and the price ratio of gold and silver in the overseas market was 57.01, a change of -2.78% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On the previous trading day (February 26, 2026), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 28,110 kilograms, a change of -3.90% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 226,742 kilograms, a change of -7.11% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]