化工日报：EG国内负荷高位进一步提升-20260227

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter-period: None; Inter-variety: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3700 yuan/ton (a change of -47 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 1.25%), the spot price in the East China EG market was 3612 yuan/ton (a change of -46 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 1.26%), and the basis of East China EG spot was -88 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 2 yuan/ton) [1] - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene-based EG was -60 US dollars/ton (a month-on-month decrease of 3 US dollars/ton), and the production gross profit of coal-based syngas EG was -998 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of 5 yuan/ton) [1] - According to the data released by CCF every Monday, the inventory at the main ports in East China for MEG was 98.2 tons (a month-on-month increase of 4.7 tons). From February 9th to February 23rd, the actual arrivals at the main ports in East China totaled 15.7 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 5.1 tons. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week totaled 12.5 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 0.7 tons. The inventory at the main ports is expected to increase slightly and remain stable [1] - On the domestic supply side, the load of ethylene glycol in China is at a high level, and the inventory pressure is still high under the high supply. In terms of overseas supply, with the maintenance of plants in Saudi Arabia and Taiwan, the import pressure will be alleviated around the end of February, and the import pressure will be relieved from March to April. On the demand side, the weaving and polyester loads during the Spring Festival have dropped to a low level, and the support from rigid demand has weakened. Attention should be paid to the post-festival recovery situation [1] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3700 yuan/ton (a change of -47 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 1.25%), the spot price in the East China EG market was 3612 yuan/ton (a change of -46 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 1.26%), and the basis of East China EG spot was -88 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 2 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene-based EG was -60 US dollars/ton (a month-on-month decrease of 3 US dollars/ton), and the production gross profit of coal-based syngas EG was -998 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of 5 yuan/ton) [1] International Price Difference - The report mentions the international price difference of ethylene glycol (the difference between US FOB and Chinese CFR), but no specific data is provided [18] Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - During the Spring Festival, the weaving and polyester loads dropped to a low level, and the support from rigid demand weakened. Attention should be paid to the post-festival recovery situation [1] Inventory Data - According to the data released by CCF every Monday, the inventory at the main ports in East China for MEG was 98.2 tons (a month-on-month increase of 4.7 tons). From February 9th to February 23rd, the actual arrivals at the main ports in East China totaled 15.7 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 5.1 tons. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week totaled 12.5 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 0.7 tons. The inventory at the main ports is expected to increase slightly and remain stable [1]