下游复工缓慢，去库压力仍存

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the polyethylene (PE) market show a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the inventory is expected to rise. The demand side has limited restocking, and attention should be paid to the destocking rhythm after the downstream resumes work. The short - term cost support is strong, which boosts the price [3]. - For polypropylene (PP), geopolitical disturbances push up oil prices and propane prices, increasing the cost support. The supply is reduced in the short term, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term cost increase still boosts the price. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the destocking rhythm of the upstream and middle - stream after the downstream resumes work [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,668 yuan/ton (-109), and that of the PP main contract is 6,675 yuan/ton (-45). The LL spot prices in North China and East China are 6,580 yuan/ton (-100) and 6,660 yuan/ton (-120) respectively. The PP spot price in East China is 6,650 yuan/ton (-30). The LL basis in North China is -88 yuan/ton (+9), the LL basis in East China is -8 yuan/ton (-11), and the PP basis in East China is -25 yuan/ton (+15) [1]. - Upstream Supply: The PE operating rate is 88.0% (-0.5%), and the PP operating rate is 75.5% (-0.4%) [1]. - Production Profit: The PE oil - based production profit is -215.7 yuan/ton (+13.9), the PP oil - based production profit is -555.7 yuan/ton (+13.9), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -467.7 yuan/ton (+20.3) [1]. - Import and Export: The LL import profit is -42.0 yuan/ton (-17.3), the PP import profit is -390.5 yuan/ton (-58.0), and the PP export profit is -62.5 US dollars/ton (-8.2) [2]. - Downstream Demand: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 10.1% (-14.7%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 24.7% (+4.4%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 29.3% (+5.2%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 36.7% (-6.0%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the inventory is expected to rise. The demand side has limited restocking, and attention should be paid to the destocking rhythm after the downstream resumes work. The short - term cost support is strong, which boosts the price [3]. - PP: Geopolitical disturbances push up oil prices and propane prices, increasing the cost support. The supply is reduced in the short term, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term cost increase still boosts the price. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the destocking rhythm of the upstream and middle - stream after the downstream resumes work [4]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see; in the short term, it mainly fluctuates with the cost side [5]. - Inter - period: Cautiously shrink the L05 - 09 spread when it is high [5]. - Inter - variety: Cautiously shrink the L - PP spread when it is high [5].