苹果月报-20260227

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of cold - storage apples is tight this season due to low inventory and poor quality. The demand is expected to improve seasonally in March and April, and the cost of apple warehouse receipts is high. These factors support the price increase of the May contract. For the May contract, it is recommended to build long positions on dips, and for the October contract, it is recommended to build short positions on rallies after it follows the May contract's rise [6][35]. Summary According to the Directory 1. First Part: Preface Summary 1.1 Market Review - In February, the price center of the main - continuous apple futures contract continued to move up, from the previous range of 9400 - 9700 yuan/ton to 9400 - 9900 yuan/ton. The reasons include low cold - storage apple inventory and poor quality this season, fair pre - spring cold - storage apple demand, and high costs of making apple warehouse receipts [5][10]. 1.2 Market Outlook - Fundamentally, the supply is tight due to low cold - storage inventory and poor quality. The demand is expected to improve in March and April as it is a relative off - season for fruit supply. The cost of warehouse receipts is high. These factors support the price of the May contract. In terms of the market, it is recommended to build long positions on dips for the May contract and short positions on rallies for the October contract [6]. 2. Second Part: Fundamental Situation 2.1 Market Review - In February, there was a large amount of apple sales before the Spring Festival, and the sales slowed down during the Spring Festival. The price of high - quality apples remained stable at a high level, while the price of slightly inferior apples weakened after the Spring Festival. The opening price of Shaanxi Luochuan paper - bag Fuji 70 semi - commodity was around 4.2 yuan/jin, 0.45 yuan/jin higher than the same period last year. The trading price of Shandong Qixia paper - bag Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade goods was stable at around 4 yuan/jin, 0.25 yuan/jin higher than the same period last year. The price center of the main - continuous apple futures contract moved up [10]. 2.2 Cold - Storage Inventory Reduction - This year's cold - storage apple inventory is at a second - lowest level in recent years. Before the Spring Festival, market stocking increased, and the cold - storage apple sales were good, with a significant decrease in inventory. As of February 27, 2026, the national main - producing area cold - storage apple inventory was 5.5292 million tons, a decrease of 190,800 tons from the previous week and 181,100 tons from the same period last year, a decrease of 3.2%. The cold - storage inventory in Shandong was 2 million tons, a 1% increase year - on - year; in Shaanxi, it was 1.6236 million tons, a 17.2% decrease; in Gansu, it was 619,900 tons, a 34% decrease; in Shanxi, it was 484,900 tons, a 59% increase; in Liaoning, it was 517,700 tons, an 83% increase. The cold - storage apple inventory reduction in Gansu is faster, while that in Shandong is relatively slower. It is expected that the inventory reduction speed will accelerate in March and April [11][14]. 2.3 Apple Demand in March and April - In February, apple sales were good in the first two weeks (pre - Spring Festival stocking) and poor in the last two weeks (post - Spring Festival). The weekly sales volumes in the four weeks of February were 342,500 tons, 316,500 tons, 161,500 tons, and 190,800 tons respectively. March and April are the relative off - season for fruit listing and the peak period for cold - storage apple shipment. It is expected that the apple shipment volume will increase. The apple arrival volume at the three major wholesale markets in Guangzhou is expected to increase seasonally in March and April [22]. 2.4 Import and Export Situation - Apple exports: In December 2025, the domestic apple export volume increased significantly, with about 156,500 tons, a 28.6% month - on - month increase and a 26.8% year - on - year increase. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was about 962,100 tons, a 1.94% year - on - year decrease. It is expected that the export volume in January and February will remain at a seasonal high but may decrease compared with December. Apple imports: In December 2025, the domestic apple import volume was at a seasonal low, with 31,000 tons, a 21.3% month - on - month increase and a 20% year - on - year increase. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 116,800 tons, a 19.7% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the import volume in January and February will remain low [28]. 2.5 High Prices of Substitute Fruits - The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits increased in February, from 7.88 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month to 8.02 yuan/kg currently, at a high level in the same period over the years. The average wholesale price of mandarins increased slightly in February, from 6.1 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month to 6.2 yuan/kg currently. It is expected that substitute fruits will have a bullish support for apple prices in March and April [31]. 3. Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Fundamentally, the supply is tight, the demand is expected to improve, and the cost of warehouse receipts is high, which support the price of the May contract. It is recommended to build long positions on dips for the May contract and short positions on rallies for the October contract. In addition, it is recommended to go long on the May contract and short on the October contract for arbitrage [8][35].