兴业中证港股通互联网 ETF(520790):AI 主题多点开花,港股互联网迎配置良机
Changjiang Securities·2026-02-27 05:10
- Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the expected Fed rate cuts, the Hong Kong stock market may attract more capital inflows and become active again due to its relatively moderate valuation [6][16][18]. - The media industry continues its recovery trend, with improved profitability in 2025. Mobile internet traffic is growing steadily, and the usage time of online videos is increasing [7][24][35]. - The computer industry's revenue showed a weak recovery in 2025, with profit growth mainly driven by cost - reduction. However, the overall effective demand is insufficient, and the infrastructure is a bottleneck for the full implementation of AI applications [48][53][60]. - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index has investment value, with its components having a combination of leading and balanced attributes, high elasticity, growth, and profitability. The index has a relatively low valuation recently [8][92][96][110][114]. - The Industrial Securities CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF (520790) closely tracks the underlying index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and tracking error [3][9][116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Hong Kong Stocks - As of February 14, 2026, the market expects the Fed to gradually lower the target rate in FOMC meetings starting from June, based on the 30 - day federal funds futures pricing data [16][17]. - With the expected increase in global liquidity due to potential Fed rate cuts, the Hong Kong stock market, with its moderate valuation, may attract more global investors and see more capital inflows, promoting market activity [6][18]. 3.2 Media Industry - In the first three quarters of 2025, the media industry's revenue increased year - on - year. The Yangtze River Media Internet sector achieved a revenue of 404.8 billion yuan, a 5.72% year - on - year increase. In Q3 2025, the revenue was 139 billion yuan, an 8.81% year - on - year increase and a 2.91% quarter - on - quarter increase [24]. - The industry's profitability improved. In the first three quarters of 2025, the Yangtze River Media Internet sector's net profit attributable to the parent company was 32.6 billion yuan, a 43.87% year - on - year increase. In Q3 2025, it was 10.5 billion yuan, a 53.79% year - on - year increase [27]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the media industry's gross profit margin and net profit margin attributable to the parent company increased year - on - year, while the expense ratio was generally stable, with a slight increase in the sales expense ratio [30][32]. 3.3 Internet Sector - Mobile internet traffic is growing steadily, and the usage time of online videos is increasing. In August 2025, the number of mobile internet users reached 1.267 billion, and in April 2025, the monthly per - capita usage time was 171 hours. In June 2025, the usage time of online videos increased by 22.1% year - on - year [35]. - Affected by macro - factors, advertising investment became more cautious, which impacted the internet sector's revenue. In Q3 2025, the internet sector's revenue was 9.1 billion yuan, a 0.8% year - on - year decline, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 660 million yuan, a 15.3% year - on - year decline [42]. - In Q3 2025, the internet sector's gross profit margin increased year - on - year, and the sales expense ratio increased slightly [45]. 3.4 Computer Industry - After three years of suppressed demand, the computer industry's revenue showed a weak recovery in 2025. From Q1 to Q3 2025, the total revenue was 482.3 billion yuan, a 5.1% year - on - year increase. As of Q3 2025, the contract liability reached 95.57 billion yuan, a 9.6% year - on - year increase [48]. - The apparent profit growth was mainly driven by cost - control. From Q1 to Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 12.41 billion yuan, a 184.0% year - on - year increase. The gross profit margin was stable, and the three - fee ratio decreased [53]. - The sector's valuation is at a relatively high level. As of December 15, 2025, the Yangtze River Computer's latest PE - TTM (non - negative) was 65.31 times, at the 86th percentile since 2016 [58]. - There are structural effects in the sub - industries, and the overall effective demand is insufficient. AI demand shows growth in revenue, with hardware profits performing better than software. G - end demand has some changes in individual targets, and B - end demand in most sub - sectors is recovering, but the profit inflection point is not clear [60]. 3.5 CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index - The index selects 30 listed company securities related to internet business from the Hong Kong Stock Connect scope to reflect the overall performance of internet - themed listed company securities in the Hong Kong Stock Connect. It is calculated based on the adjusted market value of the corresponding component stocks according to the index compilation rules [3][8][83]. - As of February 13, 2026, the index's component stocks are mainly concentrated in five industries: media, commerce and retail, social services, computer, and electronics, with a total weight of 86.26%. The media industry has a relatively high proportion, with a weight of 30.85% [8][87]. - The component stocks have a combination of leading and balanced attributes. There are 7 component stocks with a market value of over HK$150 billion, accounting for about 65.75% of the weight, and 20 component stocks with a market value of less than HK$60 billion, accounting for about 22.89% of the weight [92]. - The index has high elasticity, growth, and profitability. The top ten component stocks have a total market value of about HK$1,017.7793 billion, accounting for about 77.36% of the weight. The weighted average expected net profit growth rate in the next two years is 72.21% [96]. - The component stocks have a high repurchase amount, indicating strong corporate confidence. From January 1, 2021, to June 30, 2025, more than half of the component stocks had non - zero repurchase amounts, and 3 of them had repurchase amounts exceeding HK$10 billion [103]. - The index has excellent long - term performance and a relatively low recent valuation. Compared with the Hang Seng Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index in the past seven years, it has greater elasticity in some market conditions and certain excess returns. As of February 13, 2026, the PE (TTM) value is 23.45, lower than 82.46% of the time points since the index was released [110][114]. 3.6 Industrial Securities CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF - The Industrial Securities CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF (520790) closely tracks the underlying index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and tracking error [3][9][116]. - The fund is a stock - type, passive index - type fund, with the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index (adjusted by valuation exchange rate) as the performance benchmark. The subscription period is from March 2, 2026, to March 13, 2026 [119]. - The management fee rate is 0.45%, the custody fee rate is 0.10%, and the subscription fee rate for the front - end (ordinary investment group) is 0.30% for an amount less than HK$1 million and HK$1,000 per transaction for an amount of HK$1 million or more [120].