“源头活水”地方政府转型系列报告（二）：化债见效，地方国企首发债有何特点 ?

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, under the deployment of the central government to "actively and orderly resolve local government debt risks," the urban investment bond market entered a critical period of transformation. The number and scale of first - time bond - issuing entities among local state - owned enterprises, represented by urban investment companies, increased compared to 2024, indicating a positive signal in the financing environment of local state - owned enterprises. Future bonds issued by local state - owned enterprises and transformed urban investment platforms may become an increment in the credit bond market, helping to relieve the pressure of the current significant narrowing of spreads. However, regional differences and the differentiation of issuer qualifications may reshape the original pricing logic of urban investment bonds, leading to differentiation and re - pricing of bonds of local state - owned enterprises represented by urban investment companies [3]. - The urban investment bond market is in a stage of stock game, with the issuance of urban investment bonds continuously shrinking. The "exit from the platform" of urban investment shows a "high at first and then stable" trend, and the scale of debt - resolution funds is expanding, providing support for the stable contraction of the urban investment bond market [8]. - The new bonds of local state - owned enterprises show characteristics of "prudent expansion, structural optimization, and regional differentiation." The exchange has become the main issuance venue for new bonds, and medium - to high - rated entities play a core role. Some entities achieve credit enhancement through AAA - rated guarantees and obtain opportunities to issue new bonds. New bond issuances are highly concentrated in comprehensive entities and economically developed eastern provinces [10]. - In the future, due to regional differences and issuer qualification differentiation, the pricing logic of urban investment - related bonds may be reshaped, and these bonds may face a new round of differentiation and re - pricing. If the scale of bond issuance by transformed urban investment platforms and new local state - owned enterprises continues to expand, relevant bonds will become an important increment in the credit bond market, marginally relieving the narrowing pressure of urban investment bond spreads and the "asset shortage" [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Urban Investment Financing under Debt - Resolution Policies: Controlling Increment and Resolving Stock Remains the Main Line - Continuous Contraction of Urban Investment Bond Issuance: Since 2023, with the implementation of debt - resolution policies, the net financing of urban investment bonds has gradually declined. In 2023, after the implementation of important debt - resolution policies in July, the net financing of urban investment bonds turned negative in the fourth quarter. In 2024, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds remained at a low level, and the net financing was continuously negative. In 2025, the contraction trend continued, with the net financing further decreasing to - 5,793.34 billion yuan, the total issuance volume dropping to 32,672.44 billion yuan, and the number of issuances shrinking to 5,500 [20][21]. - "Exit from the Platform" of Urban Investment with a "High at First and then Stable" Trend: After the "debt - resolution plan" was proposed at the end of July 2023, the number of urban investment platforms exiting the list reached a peak in the third quarter of that year. In 2024, the total number of exits decreased, and in 2025, the exit rhythm further slowed down. Regionally, the number of exits is higher in traditional bond - issuing provinces such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong. In terms of administrative levels, district - and county - level platforms are the main force [26][28]. - Continuous Increase in Debt - Resolution Funds: From 2023 to 2025, the scale of debt - resolution funds increased from 1.70 trillion yuan to 3.68 trillion yuan, and its proportion in local bond issuance rose from 18.21% to 35.73%. Through the replacement of high - cost and short - term debts with "special refinancing + special bonds," local governments have effectively reduced debt risks [32]. - High Proportion of Borrowing New to Repay Old in Raised Funds: From 2023 to 2025, the scale of urban investment bonds decreased from 6.43 trillion yuan to 5.19 trillion yuan, and the proportion of borrowing new to repay old in raised funds increased from 71.05% to 81.80%. In 2025 Q4, the proportion and scale of borrowing new to repay old both declined, indicating a more flexible use of raised funds in some regions [36][38]. 3.2. Characteristics of First - Time Bond Issuance by Local State - Owned Enterprises - High Proportion of Private Placement Bonds: In 2025, private placement bonds (non - public corporate bonds + private placement notes PPN) accounted for 69% of the first - time bond issuances by local state - owned enterprises, mainly due to their flexible issuance process and high success rate. In 2024, the types of first - time bond issuances were relatively more diverse [46][47]. - Difficulty in Issuing Bonds over 1 billion yuan: In 2025, small - and medium - sized bonds were the mainstream, with bonds below 300 million yuan and between 300 - 500 million yuan accounting for 68.47% in total. The proportion of bonds over 1 billion yuan was only 5.05%, indicating strict review standards for large - scale new financing [49]. - Larger Proportion of Medium - and Low - Interest Rate Intervals in 2025: In 2025, the proportion of bonds with a coupon rate in the 1.5 - 2.0% interval was 16.55%, and the 2.0 - 3.0% interval accounted for 69.34%. The coupon rate of first - time bond issuances in 2025 decreased significantly compared to 2024 [52]. - Peak Issuance at the End of Quarters and Years: In 2025, the monthly issuance scale of first - time bond issuances by local state - owned enterprises showed certain fluctuations, with peaks in April, June - July, and October - December. In 2024, the issuance scale was generally lower, with peaks in March and December [54]. - Concentration in Medium - to High - Rated Entities: In 2025, most first - time bond - issuing entities were medium - to high - rated. There were 266 AA+ entities with a issuance scale of 134.075 billion yuan, and 93 AAA entities with a scale of 65.342 billion yuan. In 2024, the rating structure was also concentrated, with AA+ entities being the main ones [58]. - 3 - Year and Shorter - Term Bonds as the Main Choice: In terms of non - callable bonds, in 2025, 1 - 3 - year and 3 - 5 - year bonds dominated. In terms of callable bonds, the "3+N" structure was the most popular. Compared with 2024, the duration of first - time bond issuances in 2025 was generally longer, indicating an improved financing environment [61][64]. - Exchanges as the Main Source of New Issuances: In 2025, exchanges were the main issuance venues for first - time bond issuances by local state - owned enterprises, with 483 bonds issued and a scale of 261.941 billion yuan. In 2024, the distribution of issuance venues was more diverse [68]. - Dominance of the Comprehensive Industry: In 2025, "comprehensive" entities accounted for nearly half of the first - time bond issuances in terms of both quantity and scale. Traditional industries such as non - bank finance, construction decoration, public utilities, transportation, and real estate also had a relatively high concentration. In 2024, the industry distribution was more dispersed [72][74]. - Economic Powerhouses Taking the Lead in Regional Distribution: In 2025, first - time bond - issuing entities were highly concentrated in eastern coastal and some economically developed provinces. Shandong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu led in terms of the number and scale of issuances, accounting for about 40%. Guangdong, Henan, Sichuan, and Hubei formed the second - tier group, accounting for about 25%. In 2024, the regional distribution was also concentrated, with lower participation from the central and western regions [75][79]. - AAA - Rated Guarantees May Increase the Likelihood of First - Time Issuance: In 2025, 338 first - time bond - issuing entities had no guarantee, but 236 entities achieved first - time issuance through guarantee - based credit enhancement. Most of the guarantors were AAA - rated, indicating that seeking strong - credit - quality guarantors is a feasible way to obtain new bond quotas [80]. 3.3. Future Outlook: Urban Investment - Related Bonds May Face Differentiation and Re - Pricing - Structural Adjustment: From Contraction of Urban Investment to Expansion of Industries: In 2026, regulatory authorities will support issuers with real industrial foundations, clear business models, and sustainable cash flows. Urban investment bonds will continue to decline, while bonds of local state - owned enterprises and industrial bonds will be the market increment. High - grade industrial bonds with high - quality assets, high credit quality, profitability, and industrial support will be an important direction for institutional allocation. "High - growth" and "innovative" bonds such as science and technology innovation bonds and green bonds will have greater development opportunities [86]. - Possible New Round of Differentiation and Re - Pricing: With the continuous advancement of debt - resolution policies, more traditional urban investment platforms will achieve "exit from the platform" and market - oriented transformation. If these entities can obtain new debt issuance quotas, relevant bonds will become an important increment in the credit bond market. However, due to regional differences and issuer qualification differentiation, urban investment - related bonds may face a new round of differentiation and re - pricing. Investors are advised to focus on regional entities with relatively complete industrial systems, mature industrial layouts, characteristic advantageous industries, or national key industrial projects [93][94].