棉价冲高回落，郑糖延续反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][7][9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, the global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to tighten in the new season. In the domestic market, the textile market is expected to resume trading, and the cotton price center may move up in the medium - long term, but the short - term rise may be restricted by internal - external price differences [2][3] - For sugar, the short - to - medium - term global sugar surplus pattern will continue to suppress the raw sugar futures price. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and the import policy may support the market [5] - For pulp, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, and the demand is expected to improve compared with last year, but the port inventory remains high, and the short - term pulp price may be in low - level consolidation [8][9] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 15350 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton (- 0.20%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang factory price of 3128B cotton was 16548 yuan/ton, a change of + 759 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16681 yuan/ton, a change of + 611 yuan/ton. As of February 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 550.37 million tons, a decrease of 28.5 million tons (4.92%) from the end of January, and 17.74 million tons (3.12%) lower than the same period last year. The textile enterprise's in - stock industrial cotton inventory was 102.92 million tons, an increase of 7.56 million tons year - on - year and 2.82 million tons month - on - month. The disposable cotton inventory was 121.78 million tons, a decrease of 6.89 million tons year - on - year and an increase of 3.33 million tons month - on - month. The yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 21.32 days, a decrease of 0.86 days year - on - year and 0.39 days month - on - month [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA outlook forum shows that in the 2026/27 season, the global cotton production will be 25.26 million tons, a decrease of 3.2% year - on - year; the consumption will be 26.15 million tons, an increase of 1.2% year - on - year; the ending inventory will be 15.5 million tons, a decrease of 5.2% year - on - year. Domestically, the textile market is expected to resume work, and the cotton consumption is expected to increase. The supply - demand is expected to be balanced, but there may be a tight inventory situation at the end of the year. The planting area of Xinjiang cotton will be structurally compressed in the 2026/27 season [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. In the short term, the post - holiday Zheng cotton may be volatile and strong, but the short - term rise may be restricted by internal - external price differences [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5285 yuan/ton, a change of + 37 yuan/ton (+ 0.71%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5330 yuan/ton, with no change; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5170 yuan/ton, with no change. The ISMA estimates that the total sugar production (before ethanol diversion) in the 2025/26 season will be 32.409 million tons, the ethanol diversion will be 3.1 million tons, and the net sugar production (after ethanol diversion) will be 29.292 million tons, an increase of 12% year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - The short - to - medium - term global sugar surplus pattern will continue to suppress the raw sugar futures price. The long - term supply side has potential positive factors. In the domestic market, the sugar production is expected to increase, and the import policy may support the market [5] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of domestic sugar production and the change of import sugar policy [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5312 yuan/ton, a change of - 36 yuan/ton (- 0.67%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5340 yuan/ton, a change of - 35 yuan/ton; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4950 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton. The import wood pulp spot market price changed differently, with some pulp prices weakening and most being stable [7] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, the overseas new production capacity is less in the past two years, and the supply pressure of global wood pulp is expected to weaken in 2026. In terms of demand, the terminal demand was insufficient in 2025, and the port inventory was high. In 2026, the demand is expected to improve [8] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. The improvement of the pulp fundamentals is limited, and the short - term pulp price may be in low - level consolidation [9]