高库存下，铜价暂时难有靓丽表现

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Options: Sell put [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand around the Spring Festival. The TC at the mine end stops falling and rebounds, and the expected maintenance in the second quarter supports the raw material price. The processing fee of blister copper at the smelting end rises, the import window closes, and the bonded area inventory flows into the domestic market. Terminal consumption enters the holiday mode comprehensively, the operating rates of refined copper rods, cables, and enameled wires decline significantly, and the spot market has "prices but no transactions". The inventories of the world's three major exchanges continue to accumulate, and the pressure of inventory build - up during the festival is prominent, putting pressure on copper prices. However, this situation may gradually change after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to pay attention to the resumption of work progress and inventory destocking rhythm after the festival, and adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy in the short term. The operating range of Shanghai copper is recommended to be between 98,000 - 104,500 yuan/ton. On the spot side, large - scale stockpiling should be postponed, and wait for the narrowing of the discount before intervening [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On February 26, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 102,880 yuan/ton and closed at 102,670 yuan/ton, a 0.20% increase compared with the previous trading day's closing. The main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 102,880 yuan/ton in the night session and closed at 102,550 yuan/ton, a 0.15% decrease compared with the afternoon closing [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot discount of Shanghai copper is expected to continue to be under pressure. The resumption of work by downstream enterprises drives a slight recovery in procurement and sales sentiment, with more inquiries and purchases. However, the continuous increase in supply suppresses the market. The Contango spread between months remains at 420 - 350 yuan/ton, and the willingness of holders to deliver to the warehouse diverts the liquidity of the spot market. Imported and domestic copper arrive successively, the resumption of work by downstream enterprises lags behind, and the social inventory has increased to a historical high of 531,700 tons. The unmatched delivery warehouse receipts also form pressure. Overall, under the dominance of supply pressure, the spot discount may still widen today [2]. 3.1.3 Important Information Summaries - Macro and Geopolitical Aspects: The third round of indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States ended. The Iranian Foreign Minister said that the two sides are close to reaching a consensus in some areas, and technical negotiations will be held in Vienna next Monday. The Foreign Minister of Oman, the mediator, said that the negotiations "made significant progress", but the media said that there are still large differences between the two sides. The US insists that Iran completely dismantle its nuclear facilities and transfer all enriched uranium out of the country, while Iran proposes to stop nuclear activities within a limited period and then resume enrichment activities within a regulated regional framework [3]. - Global Debt: The Institute of International Finance released a report showing that the global debt scale climbed to a record $34.8 trillion at the end of last year, an increase of nearly $2.9 trillion, the fastest growth rate since the early days of the COVID - 19 pandemic in 2020, changing the previous structure dominated by households or enterprises. The government debts of countries such as the United States and the Eurozone account for more than $1 trillion [3]. - Economic Data: The number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week was 212,000, with an expected 215,000, and the previous value was revised from 206,000 to 208,000 [3]. 3.2 Mine End - Teck Resources' CEO Jonathan Price warned that copper supply constraints are still severe. The output of existing mines is expected to decline from 2027. Even if committed projects are included, copper supply is expected to peak in 2029, with limited growth space thereafter. In 2025, the unplanned interruption of copper concentrate was more than 6% higher than the historical level, further intensifying the supply pressure. There is an obvious disconnect between the construction cycle of new mine supply and potential demand drivers [4]. - Vale plans to invest a total of $3.5 billion in the Carajás Mineral Province in northern Brazil from 2026 to 2030, with the annual investment increasing from $300 million to $1.1 billion, aiming to accelerate the development of copper mine projects such as Salobo, Sossego, and Bacaba (in the environmental permit stage). This large - scale capital expenditure is aimed at medium - and long - term supply increments, but the investment peak will occur after 2028, meaning that a large amount of new output may enter the market in the early 2030s, overlapping with the expected accelerated growth of copper demand brought about by the global energy transition. Whether Vale's aggressive investment can be converted into effective supply on schedule will be one of the core variables in balancing the copper market supply and demand in the next decade [4]. 3.3 Smelting and Import - According to the latest monthly report of the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), the global refined copper market had a surplus of 380,000 tons in 2025 and 69,000 tons in 2024. In December, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 173,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 74,000 tons in November. In December, the global copper mine output was 2.05 million tons, and the annual output in 2025 was 23.125 million tons, compared with 22.958 million tons in the same period last year; the global refined copper (primary + recycled) output in December was 2.431 million tons, and the annual output in 2025 was 2.854 million tons, compared with 27.397 million tons in the same period last year; the global refined copper consumption in December was 2.258 million tons, and the annual consumption in 2025 was 2.816 million tons, compared with 27.328 million tons in the same period last year [5]. 3.4 Consumption - Enterprises accounting for more than 90% of the waste copper consumption in Europe jointly issued a position paper, warning that if the EU does not take restrictive measures similar to those for aluminum to curb waste copper exports, the European copper processing industry will face a critical supply shortage. Since 2022, the EU's waste copper exports have soared by 31%, with about half exported to China. At the same time, attracted by the high premium under the US tariff expectation, a large amount of European refined copper has been transported to the US by investors, further exacerbating the raw material supply shortage in the European local market. German metal product manufacturer Wieland's executive Uwe Schmidt said that the risk of cathode copper shortage in Europe is high next year, and the dual shortage of waste copper and cathode copper will form a "dangerous combination" for semi - finished product manufacturers such as copper rods, copper wires, and copper tubes. Uwe Schmidt believes that it is logical for the EU to take the same export - restriction measures for the copper industry [5][6]. 3.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 6,475 tons to 253,600 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 1,413 tons to 289,219 tons. On February 26, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 531,700 tons, a change of 23,200 tons compared with the previous week [6].