纯苯苯乙烯日报：下游开工等待进一步恢复-20260227

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is neutral, with no strategy for basis and inter - period, and a cross - variety strategy of short eb2604 and long bz2604 [4] Core View - Keep an eye on the situation between the US and Iran and its impact on the cost of aromatics. After the holiday, the port inventory of pure benzene slightly accumulated and remained at a historical high. The domestic production rate of pure benzene has significantly rebounded from the previous bottom, and there is still pressure on future imports. The downstream production of pure benzene is performing well, with the production rate of styrene further increasing, and the production rates of phenol, aniline, and adipic acid showing good performance, while the production rate of caprolactam has been consolidating at a low level. The domestic production rate of styrene has bottomed out and rebounded, and the port inventory has continued to increase during the week, but the absolute inventory level is slightly lower than the same period. Also, pay attention to the possible resumption of production of the long - shut - down Jingbo and Yuhuang. The production rate of EPS has rebounded from the bottom after the holiday and is waiting for further recovery; the production rate of PS has remained at a low level, and the inventory has seasonally accumulated after the holiday; the production rate of ABS has not further increased, and the inventory has slightly increased [3] Summary According to the Directory I. Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread of Pure Benzene and EB - The basis of pure benzene's main contract is - 9 yuan/ton (+23), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 160 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton). The basis of styrene's main contract is 170 yuan/ton (+18 yuan/ton) [1] II. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - The processing fee of pure benzene CFR China is 167 US dollars/ton (- 5 US dollars/ton), and the processing fee of pure benzene FOB South Korea is 164 US dollars/ton (- 3 US dollars/ton). The spread between the US and South Korea for pure benzene is 121.2 US dollars/ton (- 24.1 US dollars/ton). The non - integrated production profit of styrene is 516 yuan/ton (+44 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1] III. Inventory and Production Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - The port inventory of pure benzene is 30.40 tons (+0.00 tons), and the production rate of caprolactam is 74.46% (+0.36%), the production rate of phenol is 89.50% (+0.50%), the production rate of aniline is 89.12% (- 0.46%), and the production rate of adipic acid is 71.50% (+0.00%). The East China port inventory of styrene is 158,100 tons (+61,900 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 87,200 tons (+33,200 tons), and the production rate of styrene is 74.7% (+1.5%) [1] IV. Production Rates and Profits of Styrene's Downstream - The production profit of EPS is 187 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), the production profit of PS is - 383 yuan/ton (- 30 yuan/ton), and the production profit of ABS is - 1,122 yuan/ton (- 81 yuan/ton). The production rate of EPS is 12.18% (+12.18%), the production rate of PS is 49.40% (- 0.30%), and the production rate of ABS is 70.70% (+1.80%) [2] V. Production Rates and Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - The production profit of caprolactam is - 585 yuan/ton (+35), the production profit of phenol - acetone is - 734 yuan/ton (+100), the production profit of aniline is 1,198 yuan/ton (- 56), and the production profit of adipic acid is - 277 yuan/ton (+32) [1]