港口仍等待去库周期开启

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: None - Inter - commodity: None [4] 2. Core View - The situation between the US and Iran remains a focus, but the lack of further escalation has dragged down the market sentiment. Attention should be paid to its subsequent development. - In the port area, the loading volume from Iran in February continued to decline, leading to expectations of a destocking cycle in March. However, port inventories still slightly accumulated after the Spring Festival, and the inventory pressure persists. The winter - shutdown devices in Iran are recovering, and the resumption rhythm of the remaining devices in early March should be monitored. Some downstream MTO devices are under maintenance, and their resumption progress should be followed. - In the inland area, inland factory inventories have rapidly increased seasonally after the Spring Festival. Coal - based methanol maintains high - level operation, while the traditional downstream is in a seasonal off - peak period, waiting for the post - festival load increase of formaldehyde [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Key Data - Inland Area: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is priced at 515 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 325 yuan/ton (down 38 yuan). Inner Mongolia's northern line methanol is 1830 yuan/ton (down 38 yuan), with a basis of 220 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan); the southern line is 1850 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan). Shandong Linyi is at 2175 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan), with a basis of 165 yuan/ton (up 22 yuan); Henan is 2030 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), with a basis of 20 yuan/ton (up 19 yuan); Hebei is 2075 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan), with a basis of 125 yuan/ton (up 59 yuan). Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 535,410 tons (up 195,030 tons), northwest factory inventory is 346,600 tons (up 177,500 tons); inland factory pending orders are 206,751 tons (down 108,280 tons), and northwest factory pending orders are 82,500 tons (down 77,500 tons) [1]. - Port Area: Taicang methanol is priced at 2197 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan), with a basis of - 13 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan), CFR China is 267 US dollars/ton (down 2 US dollars), and the East China import spread is - 24 yuan/ton (up 13 yuan). Changzhou methanol is 2255 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2202 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan), with a basis of - 8 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan). Longzhong's total port inventory is 1,446,697 tons (up 14,514 tons), Jiangsu port inventory is 722,915 tons (up 36,232 tons), Zhejiang port inventory is 321,282 tons (down 36,718 tons), and Guangdong port inventory is 225,000 tons (up 23,000 tons). The downstream MTO operating rate is 84.08% (unchanged) [2]. - Regional Spreads: The spread of Lubei - Northwest - 280 is 25 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan), Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 is - 183 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan), Taicang - Lunan - 250 is - 228 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan); Lunan - Taicang - 100 is - 122 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan); Guangdong - East China - 180 is - 175 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan); East China - Sichuan and Chongqing - 200 is - 128 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - The US - Iran situation is a focus, and the lack of further escalation has affected the market sentiment. - In the port area, the expected destocking cycle in March may be affected by the slight post - festival inventory accumulation. The recovery of Iranian winter - shutdown devices and the maintenance of downstream MTO devices are key factors. - In the inland area, the rapid seasonal increase in factory inventories, high - level operation of coal - based methanol, and the low - season of the traditional downstream are the main characteristics [3]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: No strategy - Inter - commodity: No strategy [4] 3.4 Figures in the Report - Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure: Figures 1 - 11 show various basis and inter - period spreads of methanol [6]. - Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit: Figures 12 - 17 show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and import spreads [6]. - Methanol Operation & Inventory: Figures 18 - 21 show the total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P operating rate, inland factory inventory, and China's methanol operating rate [6]. - Regional Spreads: Figures 22 - 27 show different regional spreads of methanol [6]. - Traditional Downstream Profit: Figures 28 - 31 show the production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE, and dimethyl ether [6].