下游开工陆续恢复

Group 1: Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,855 yuan/ton (-108), the East China basis was -175 yuan/ton (+58), and the South China basis was -95 yuan/ton (+8) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quotation was 4,680 yuan/ton (-50), and the South China calcium carbide method quotation was 4,760 yuan/ton (-100) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 685 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was -58 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method production was -439 yuan/ton (+157), the gross profit of PVC ethylene method production was 11 yuan/ton (-102), and the PVC export profit was 14.1 US dollars/ton (-2.2) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory was 50.4 tons (-0.1), the social PVC inventory was 61.6 tons (+0.1), the operation rate of the PVC calcium carbide method was 81.77% (+0.59%), the operation rate of the PVC ethylene method was 80.40% (+1.53%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 81.35% (+0.87%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 78.0 tons (-2.3) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,124 yuan/ton (-43), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was -152 yuan/ton (+49) [1] - Spot price: The quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 631 yuan/ton (+2), and the quotation of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,010 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 955 yuan/ton (+6), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 154.2 yuan/ton (+6.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was -237.83 yuan/ton (-33.75), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 796.29 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 54.09 tons (+9.80), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 4.40 tons (+0.46), and the caustic soda operation rate was 84.90% (+0.50%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation: The alumina operation rate was 83.18% (-0.28%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China was 24.34% (+24.34%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 88.43% (+0.00%) [2] Group 2: Market Analysis PVC - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st. The "rush to export" led to strong export orders. The export orders declined before the festival and increased this week compared to before the festival. The upstream inventory pressure was not large. The overall supply - demand pattern of the current market remained weak. The domestic supply was abundant, there were no new maintenance enterprises, and the expectation of spring maintenance in April increased. The downstream operation decreased significantly due to the Spring Festival holiday and would gradually recover after the festival. The social inventory increased after the festival and was at a high level year - on - year. In terms of cost, the upstream chlor - alkali production profit was slightly repaired with the increase in PVC price but was still at a low level year - on - year. The calcium carbide price decreased, the semi - coke price was stable, and the semi - coke profit was still in a loss. The PVC warehouse receipts were at a high level in the same period, and the hedging pressure on the disk still existed. Although the supply - demand was weak, the "rush to export" sentiment supported the spot to a certain extent. The mention of mercury - free transformation by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment raised the market's expectation of the long - term cost of PVC, and the valuation repair of the chemical sector attracted capital attention. The medium - and long - term expectation of the current PVC market was strong. However, the inventory accumulated during the Spring Festival and the incomplete recovery of downstream operation would keep the short - term supply - demand weak. As the downstream operation recovered, the expectation of spring maintenance increased, and the macro - expectation became stronger due to the Two Sessions, and the real - estate purchase restriction policy in Shanghai was further relaxed, the market sentiment was expected to improve. Attention should be paid to the downstream resumption rhythm, inventory changes, and macro - expectation changes [3] Caustic Soda - Some traders and downstream enterprises made up for inventory due to rigid demand, and the spot price of caustic soda increased slightly. The subsidy for liquid chlorine during the festival decreased, and the cost support was weaker than before the festival. On the supply side, some enterprises in Shandong reduced their production, and the supply decreased slightly. During the festival, affected by logistics restrictions and the decrease in downstream operation, the caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu increased. On the demand side, the receiving sentiment was average. Some alumina plants were under maintenance, the operation decreased slightly, and the mention of anti - involution in the alumina industry led to a decrease in the long - term demand expectation for caustic soda. The production progress of alumina in Guangxi was postponed, and the market's motivation to purchase caustic soda was insufficient. There was some purchase demand after the festival. The operation of non - aluminum industries decreased before the festival, and the purchasing behavior during the Spring Festival weakened. The export orders improved slightly before the festival. The low - price warehouse receipts suppressed the market sentiment to a certain extent, but as the downstream resumed work and the inventory - making demand was released after the festival, the market purchasing sentiment was expected to improve [3] Group 3: Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Short - term oscillation - Inter - delivery: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Short - term oscillation, pay attention to downstream purchasing sentiment - Inter - delivery: Go long on the SH04 - 05 spread when it is low [5]