人民币升破6.83关口，关注美国1月PPI数据

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Domestic stock indices show significant holiday seasonality, with a continuous upward trend in the first month after the Spring Festival. The probability of gains for the ChiNext, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 is not less than 60%, and the CSI 1000 (IM) performs prominently [3] - Consumption during the holiday provides some support for grains, soft commodities, and oilseeds in the agricultural products sector, with a nearly 70% probability of sample increases on the first trading day after the holiday [3] - The US GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 was lower than expected, and the February PMI preliminary value was under pressure. China's January social financing had a good start, indicating that pro - growth policies are expected to be implemented ahead of schedule [3] - There are opportunities for bottom - up allocation in commodity sectors after the holiday. The long - term supply constraints in the non - ferrous sector remain unrelieved, and precious metals have allocation value again after the adjustment [4] - In the energy sector, pay attention to the short - term evolution of the Iran situation. Oil prices are driven by geopolitical factors, and there is a risk of "selling on the news". In the long term, increased production in Venezuela still poses a threat to oil prices [4] - In the chemical sector, varieties such as PTA and PVC are relatively resistant to decline under the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage [4] - For agricultural products, pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig epidemic situations. For the black sector, focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [4] - The trading strategy is to go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products on dips [5] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - During China's Spring Festival holiday, there were continuous overseas geopolitical risks. The third round of indirect negotiations between Iran and the US took place in Geneva on the 26th. The Trump administration requires any future Iran nuclear agreement to be "indefinitely valid" without a sunset clause, and the current negotiation focuses on Iran's domestic uranium enrichment and inventory handling [2] - The US Supreme Court ruled that the 1977 IEEPA did not empower the president to impose tariffs without congressional approval. Trump announced a 10% "global import tariff" for 150 days, which took effect on February 24, and later proposed to raise it to 15% [2] - The EU froze the approval process of the US - EU trade agreement, and China will adjust counter - measures against the US [2] - Trump mentioned in his State of the Union address that the stock market hit a record high, inflation dropped, and he hoped that tariffs would replace the modern income tax system. He also made other statements such as allowing legal immigration and banning lawmakers from stock trading [2] Strategy - Go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products on dips [5] To - Do List - A new round of US - Iran negotiations started on the 26th, and the third round of negotiations was suspended and continued later that day [7] - The US Middle East envoy stated that the Trump administration requires Iran to accept an "indefinitely valid" nuclear agreement [7] - The offshore RMB against the US dollar rose above the 6.84 mark, reaching a new high since April 2023 [7] - The US may raise the "global import tariff" on some countries to 15%, and the EU estimates that 42 billion euros worth of goods face new tariffs exceeding the US - EU agreement limit [7] - Saudi Arabia's oil exports from its ports this month are expected to reach the highest level in nearly three years [7] Macro - economy - Figures include the Citi Economic Surprise Index, 30 - city weekly and daily commercial housing transaction areas, and five major listed steel consumption volumes [8][10][13] Interest Rates - Figures include the 10Y and 2Y China - US Treasury bond spreads [8][18] Foreign Exchange - Figures include the weekly change in the US dollar against major currencies and the US dollar index trend [8][21][22]