镍矿紧张支撑，镍不锈钢高位震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report Core Views - The supply of nickel ore is expected to remain contracted due to Indonesian policies and the rainy season, and with macro - factors, nickel prices are expected to be in a relatively strong oscillatory state, but are still suppressed by high inventory and weak demand, so the recommended strategy is range - bound operation [4]. - Stainless steel is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillatory state due to macro - level interest rate cut expectations and cost - side nickel price support, but is also suppressed by high inventory and weak demand, and the recommended strategy is range - bound operation [7]. Group 3: Nickel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On February 26, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2605 opened at 141,000 yuan/ton and closed at 141,040 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.34% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 368,199 (+146,585) lots, and the open interest was 205,915 (+17,485) lots [1]. - The Shanghai nickel main contract showed a trend of oscillating lower and closing slightly down. Although domestic and foreign nickel inventories continued to increase, suppressing prices, the reduction policy of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and the overnight rise of LME nickel provided strong bottom support [2]. Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market continued to be strong. The tender price of Eramen Mine's 1.3% grade in the Philippines was set at a high of $51 - 52 per wet ton, and the bullish sentiment continued to heat up. The domestic trade premium in Indonesia was at a high level, and the market was bullish. The mine's offer in the Philippines remained firm, with the latest tender price of Eramen Mine's 1.3% grade starting at FOB $52 per wet ton. The CIF price of Ni:1.4% grade shipped to Indonesia rose to $67 - 69 per wet ton, an increase of $4 - 5. In Indonesia, the supply shortage in the domestic market intensified, and the local nickel ore supply remained tight [2]. Spot - The nickel price fell slightly during the day, and the overall spot trading of refined nickel was average. Traders mostly changed the quotation contract to the Shanghai nickel 2604 contract, and the spot premiums of various brands of refined nickel decreased due to the change of contract and make - up of the month - end difference. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 400 yuan/ton to 8,150 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 53,158 (-19) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 289,506 (+1,698) tons [3]. Group 4: Nickel Variety Strategy - Supply - side nickel ore is expected to remain contracted, and nickel prices are expected to be in a relatively strong oscillatory state, but are still suppressed by high inventory and weak demand. The recommended strategy is range - bound operation [4]. - Unilateral: Range - bound operation; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [5] Group 5: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On February 26, 2026, the stainless steel main contract 2604 opened at 14,220 yuan/ton and closed at 14,265 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 103,479 (+1,063) lots, and the open interest was 77,985 (-4,171) lots [5]. - The stainless steel main contract showed a trend of oscillating stronger and closing slightly up. It was mainly supported by the cost side due to the expected reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas, and was also benefited from the strengthening of LME nickel, the increase of nickel ore premiums, and the initial recovery of downstream demand. However, high domestic stainless steel inventory, long - position liquidation, slow downstream resumption of work, and light spot trading restricted the upside space of prices, resulting in an oscillatory and slightly stronger market [5]. Spot - Driven by the strength of the futures market, market confidence increased, and spot quotes rose, but trading volume decreased compared with the previous two days. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 14,400 (+100) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 14,400 (+100) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 155 to 355 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 7.50 yuan per nickel point to 1,077.5 yuan per nickel point [6]. Group 6: Stainless Steel Variety Strategy - Due to macro - level interest rate cut expectations and cost - side nickel price support, stainless steel is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillatory state, but is still suppressed by high inventory and weak demand. The recommended strategy is range - bound operation [7]. - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [7]