光大期货软商品日报-20260227

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the ICE U.S. cotton fell 1.21% on Thursday, closing at 65.37 cents per pound, and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased 0.32% month - on - month, closing at 15,350 yuan per ton. The short - term market's trading on the expected year - on - year decline in the global and U.S. cotton inventory - to - sales ratio for the 2026/27 season has ended, and market sentiment has cooled. In the medium - to - long - term, there may still be some room for cotton prices to rise, but in the short - term, there may be a certain correction, and the resonance between domestic and international cotton may be stronger than before. The view is "oscillation" [1] - For sugar, the Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) released the third forecast data for the 2025/26 sugar production season. The domestic sugar price trend is significantly different from that of raw sugar. The futures price has increased in volume for two consecutive trading days. In the absence of significant changes in the fundamentals, it is still regarded as a range - bound market. The view is "oscillation" [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Cotton: The ICE U.S. cotton price declined, and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract decreased slightly. The short - term market sentiment cooled, but in the medium - to - long - term, there is still room for price increase. The main driving factors this week include the resonance of ICE U.S. cotton, the expected decline in China's cotton inventory - to - sales ratio in the 2026/27 season, and the expectations of domestic planting area reduction and target price policy [1] - Sugar: The ISMA released the sugar production forecast for the 2025/26 season. The raw sugar price has been weak recently, and the domestic sugar price trend is different from that of raw sugar. The futures price has increased in volume, and attention should be paid to the upcoming February production and sales data [1] Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 15, a decrease of 110; the main contract basis is 1331, an increase of 382. The spot price in Xinjiang is 16,548 yuan per ton, an increase of 511; the national spot price is 16,681 yuan per ton, an increase of 352 [2] - Sugar: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 11, an increase of 4; the main contract basis is 75, a decrease of 27. The spot price in Nanning is 5350 yuan per ton, an increase of 20; the spot price in Liuzhou is 5360 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 [2] Market Information - On February 26, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 11,137, an increase of 13 from the previous trading day, with 1233 valid forecasts [3] - On February 26, the arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were: 16,548 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 16,709 yuan per ton in Henan, 16,712 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 16,741 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3] - On February 26, the comprehensive load of yarn was 41, an increase of 1.9 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 23.7, an increase of 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 36.3, an increase of 7.3 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 32.8, the same as the previous day [3] - On February 26, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5350 yuan per ton, an increase of 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day; the spot price in Liuzhou was 5360 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day [3] - On February 26, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 14,461, the same as the previous trading day, with 1488 valid forecasts [4] Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts, including the closing price, basis, 5 - 9 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, 5 - 9 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar [6][8][9][11][14][15][17]