止盈影响下，国债期货收跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations. It is necessary to pay attention to the policy signals at the end of the month in the short - term. The stock market, policy signals, real - estate policies, and external factors all have an impact on the bond market [3]. - The repurchase rate has declined, and the prices of treasury bond futures are oscillating. Attention should be paid to the decline of the 2606 basis. In the medium - term, there is adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price Indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.20%, while China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.40% [9]. - Monthly Economic Indicators: The social financing scale is 449.11 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 6.99 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 1.58%. M2 year - on - year is 9.00%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 5.88%. The manufacturing PMI is 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% and a decline rate of 1.60% [10]. - Daily Economic Indicators: The US dollar index is 97.79, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13 and a growth rate of 0.13%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.8433, with a month - on - month increase of 0.010 and a growth rate of 0.15%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.46, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 and a decline rate of 2.67%. DR007 is 1.48, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 1.55%. R007 is 1.56, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 and a decline rate of 6.95%. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.56, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.03%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.03% [11]. 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Closing Prices and Price Changes: On February 26, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.43 yuan, 105.98 yuan, 108.37 yuan, and 112.09 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.03%, - 0.08%, - 0.10%, and - 0.53% [3]. - Net Basis: The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL is 0.065 yuan, 0.055 yuan, - 0.010 yuan, and 0.060 yuan respectively [3]. 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - Central Bank Operations: On February 26, 2026, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 320.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - Repurchase Rates: The main - term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.368%, 1.457%, 1.529%, and 1.550% respectively, and the repurchase rates have declined recently [2]. 3.4 Spread Overview The report provides multiple spread analysis charts, including the inter - period spread trends of various treasury bond futures varieties and the spread between spot - bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [47][38][40]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents charts of the implied interest rate and the treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [49][51]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report shows charts of the implied interest rate and the treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [53][60]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report includes charts of the implied yield and the treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [61][64]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides charts of the implied yield and the treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [68][71].