沥青期货周报-20260227

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - Short - term asphalt futures prices may maintain range - bound oscillations. Upward drivers come from crude oil price fluctuations and recurring geopolitical risks, while downward pressure stems from continuous inventory accumulation and weak demand. The market is currently in a stage of weak supply and demand, and price fluctuations are greatly affected by sentiment [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - During the week, asphalt futures prices showed a "stable - then - falling" trend. They oscillated in the range of 3330 - 3370 yuan/ton in the first three trading days. On Friday, affected by market sentiment and crude oil price fluctuations, the price dropped significantly to a low of 3251 yuan/ton and finally closed at 3280 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The weekly basis (spot price - futures price) showed a convergent trend, narrowing from - 124 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to - 70 yuan/ton at the end of the week [3] 3.3 Influencing Factors - Demand side: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream construction has basically stagnated, terminal purchasing willingness is low, spot market transactions are light, and only a small amount of rigid demand exists in some southern regions [4] - Supply side: The operating rate of domestic refineries remains low. Some refineries in Shandong plan to resume production during the Spring Festival but have not implemented it yet, and the overall supply has not changed much [4] 3.4 Market Outlook - Short - term asphalt futures prices may maintain range - bound oscillations. Key factors to focus on are crude oil price trends, post - festival demand recovery progress, and inventory depletion. The current market is in a stage of weak supply and demand, and price fluctuations are greatly affected by sentiment [7]