有色金属海外季报：Eramet2025Q4镍矿产量环比增长8%至1330.3万湿吨，Centenario工厂碳酸锂产量为3900吨

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more in the next six months [26]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in nickel and lithium production, with nickel ore production reaching 13.303 million wet tons in Q4 2025, an 8% increase quarter-on-quarter, while lithium production from the Centenario plant reached 3,900 tons [1][5]. - The overall financial performance of the group showed a decline, with adjusted revenue for 2025 at €3.155 billion, down 7% from 2024, and an adjusted EBITDA of €372 million, a 54% decrease [11]. - The report anticipates continued growth in lithium demand driven by the electric vehicle market, with expected lithium production in 2026 reaching between 17,000 to 20,000 tons of lithium equivalent [15]. Summary by Sections Nickel - In Q4 2025, PT WBN's nickel ore production was 13.303 million wet tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8% and a year-on-year decrease of 4%. Nickel ore sales reached 18.234 million wet tons, up 97% quarter-on-quarter and 8% year-on-year [1]. - The internal consumption of NPI at PT WBN reached 3.4 million tons in 2025 [3]. Lithium - Q4 2025 lithium production (in LCE) was 3,900 tons, significantly up from 2,080 tons in Q3 2025. The total lithium production for 2025 is projected to be 6,690 tons of lithium equivalent [5][7]. - The report notes that the Centenario plant faced technical issues earlier in the year but significantly improved production in the second half, achieving nearly 75% of rated capacity by December [5]. Manganese - Q4 2025 manganese ore and sinter production was 1.68 million tons, a 10% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 36% increase year-on-year. Manganese ore sales reached 157.2 thousand tons, up 26% quarter-on-quarter and 11% year-on-year [8]. - Manganese alloy production in Q4 2025 was 157 thousand tons, with sales of 174 thousand tons, reflecting a 12% increase quarter-on-quarter [9]. Financial Performance - The group's adjusted revenue for 2025 was €3.155 billion, down 7% from 2024, with an adjusted EBITDA of €372 million, a 54% decrease. The net profit attributable to the group was -€370 million, including an asset impairment of €171 million from the mineral sands business [11]. - The adjusted free cash flow was -€481 million, influenced by capital expenditures for lithium plant construction [11]. 2026 Outlook - For nickel, PT WBN plans to submit an application for a production quota of 12 million tons for 2026, with expectations of increased pricing due to potential structural shortages [12][14]. - The report anticipates that lithium demand will continue to grow, with the average price for battery-grade lithium expected to rise by nearly 70% in 2026 [15]. - Manganese transportation volumes are projected to reach between 6.4 million to 6.8 million tons in 2026, supported by ongoing railway upgrades [17].