铝及氧化铝2月月报：铝价波动率降低，氧化铝拖累仍在-20260227

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The volatility of aluminum prices has decreased, and the drag on alumina remains. The alumina market is expected to fluctuate weakly, while aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. The global aluminum supply-demand shortage pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the verification of consumption and supply-demand expectations [5][6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Preface Summary - Alumina: Supply-side production cuts in January and February narrowed the market surplus but did not reverse it. The cost and inventory pressure still drag down prices, and the overall market is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The global trend of "de-dollarization" continues, and the volatility of aluminum prices is decreasing. The global aluminum supply-demand shortage pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to macro guidance and the verification of consumption and supply-demand expectations [6] - Strategy Recommendations: For alumina futures, expect weak oscillations; for aluminum prices, expect high-level oscillations, and be vigilant of increased price volatility in late March. Consider arbitrage strategies such as buying physical aluminum for delivery and shorting futures, and going long on LME aluminum and shorting Shanghai aluminum. For options, adopt a wait-and-see approach [7] 2. Alumina Surplus Narrowed but Cost and Inventory Drag Remain - Raw Material End - Domestic Ore: In January 2026, domestic bauxite production was 5.34 million tons. In February, production was expected to decline seasonally, and prices remained stable [10] - Imported Ore: In February, the price of imported bauxite continued to fall. Guinea's bauxite supply is expected to increase significantly in 2026, and the price may continue to be under pressure [12] - Alumina Supply: In February, the alumina supply-side operating rate continued to decline. The shutdown of a production line in the north affected the market, and the overall inventory increased. The import window was mostly closed, and the net export volume was about 80,000 - 90,000 tons. Future production capacity changes include the resumption of overseas production and the delayed commissioning of domestic new capacity [23][27] - Cost: In January 2026, the national weighted average full cost of alumina was 2,667 yuan/ton. In February, the cost was expected to continue to decline [33] 3. Aluminum Price Volatility Decreased, Focus on Demand Expectation Fulfillment in Fundamentals - Triple Attributes Driving Aluminum Prices: From late January to early February, aluminum prices fluctuated significantly due to financial and capital factors. In the future, the financial and strategic attributes of aluminum will still drive prices, but the influence of the commodity attribute may increase in March [38] - Electrolytic Aluminum Supply: Overseas, new projects are being launched, and some plants are resuming or reducing production. In China, new projects are progressing, and the supply elasticity is low in the medium term. The cost of electrolytic aluminum production decreased in January, and the profit was high, but it is expected to shrink in February. The import loss may suppress the net import volume [45][53][54] - Post-Festival Aluminum Inventory: At the end of February, the total social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars increased significantly, and the apparent consumption decreased year-on-year. The overseas market had a different inventory situation, and changes in the US 232 aluminum tariff may have a limited impact on the global aluminum price [58][61] - Domestic Terminal Consumption - New Energy Demand: In the first quarter, there may be a rush to export photovoltaic components. The demand for aluminum in transportation is expected to increase year-on-year, and the demand for aluminum in the power sector is also growing, with significant potential for energy storage [69][72][81] - Traditional Industries: The demand for aluminum in the real estate market remains weak, and the production schedule of home appliances decreased year-on-year. However, the export of aluminum products is expected to increase [86][94][98] 4. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Alumina: The supply-side has marginal reduction, but the surplus pattern and cost and inventory pressure will still drag down prices. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly [102] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The influence of macro and capital sentiment has weakened, and the global supply-demand shortage pattern remains unchanged. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate in March, and the domestic and foreign supply-demand differentiation may widen the price gap [104]