铁矿石：需求驱动偏弱，短期建议空配

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term under - allocation for iron ore [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term macro - economic outlook is weak, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continues to accumulate, supply remains high year - on - year, and iron ore demand is still restricted by industrial chain profits and production restrictions during the conference. It is recommended to focus on short - term under - allocation [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The overall overseas ore shipments have emerged from the off - season, with a significant increase in the weekly shipment volume this period. The off - season shipments this year have shown above - seasonal growth, and overseas ore shipments are at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. The supply of domestic ore is also expected to enter a seasonal recovery cycle. Overall, the supply side has entered a high - shipment stage, providing a downward driving force [3] Demand - Domestic iron ore demand mainly depends on the profit level of steel mills and the degree of steel inventory reduction. Due to the relatively high temperature this year, construction site starts may be advanced, and the market still has a certain optimistic expectation for demand. In the short term, the probability of super - expected growth in terminal demand is low. Later, attention should be paid to the steel inventory reduction node and the intensity of resumption of work. According to the seasonal law, hot metal has entered a recovery cycle, and later more attention should be paid to the recovery speed and height. From the current profit level of steel mills and demand expectation, the recovery speed remains relatively gentle. Coupled with the impact of production restrictions on steel mills in North China during the Two Sessions, the upward driving force of demand is weak [3] Inventory - Steel mills still have restocking demand after the Spring Festival, but the intensity and sustainability of restocking still depend on the recovery of terminal demand. Judging from the current port clearance level, port inventories will still be in a cumulative state. Coupled with the weakening of spot prices, it is expected that the pressure of short - term port inventory accumulation will remain high. At the same time, attention should be paid to the potential selling risk of restricted - trade inventories. The inventory driving force is downward [3] Price - The expected price range is 93 - 100 US dollars per ton (61% index), corresponding to 710 - 760 yuan per ton for Dalian iron ore futures [3] Strategy - Conduct range trading and sell call options [3]