碳酸锂：供需紧平衡延续期价高位震荡运行，成材：重心下移偏弱运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate maintain a tight - balance pattern, with light spot trading. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The price of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures closed at 173,660 yuan/ton yesterday. The increase in price was accompanied by a surge in trading volume, the open interest decreased slightly, and the net long - short ratio continued to decline. The inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 74 lots to 38,451 lots. The average price of SMM electric carbon in the spot market was 173,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric and industrial carbon remained at 3,500 yuan/ton. The downstream had a rigid demand for replenishment, and the upstream was reluctant to sell and tried to hold up prices. The market inquiry and actual trading were relatively light, and the spot sentiment was cautious [1] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Before the festival, the price of spodumene concentrate (CIF) increased slightly, while that of mica decreased slightly. This week, the SMM weekly operating rate rose to 49.75% (a 3.73% increase compared to February 12th), and the weekly total output increased to 21,822 tons (a 560 - ton increase), indicating a marginal increase in supply [2] - Demand: The demand showed differentiation. This week, lithium - iron phosphate production increased and inventory decreased, while ternary production decreased and inventory increased. As of February 8th, the penetration rate of new - energy vehicle sales in SMM dropped to 36.3%, at a relatively low level. In January, the combined output of power and energy - storage batteries was 168.0GWh, a 16.7% decrease month - on - month and a 55.9% increase year - on - year. The sales volume was 148.8GWh, a 25.4% decrease month - on - month and an 85.1% increase year - on - year. The energy - storage battery cells had strong production and sales and low inventory, which was a structural highlight [2] - Inventory: Before the festival, the SMM four - location sample social inventory increased by 3,160 tons to 46,210 tons. This week, the sample weekly total inventory decreased to 100,093 tons, at a relatively low level. The total inventory days decreased to 28.2 days, and the overall situation maintained a tight - balance pattern [2] 3.3 Macro - policy Analysis - Domestic Policy: The subsidy for trading in old cars for new ones and the export tax rebate for batteries directly stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. The management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries raise the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, which in the long term optimizes the domestic supply structure and raises the cost - support center. The development of Qinghai salt lakes, the "14th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments in the Central Economic Work Conference work together to support the long - term supply - demand balance [3] - Macro - environment: The central bank's structural interest - rate cuts strengthen the long - term positive atmosphere [3] - International Policy: On February 20th, the US Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA tariff was illegal, and the White House imposed a 15% temporary tariff instead. The tariff on energy - storage battery cells decreased from 48.4% to 43.4%, which marginally improves export profits and is beneficial to demand during the window period [3]