Group 1: Report's Core View - This week, crude oil showed an oscillating upward trend, with the average price rising month-on-month. Geopolitical tensions remain, and the market anticipates OPEC+ to increase production from April. The US is more inclined to continue nuclear talks with Iran, which may lead to a decline in oil prices. Short-term international crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile [4]. - The domestic PX load remained unchanged, and its valuation followed crude oil's rise and fall. PX processing fees were stable at around $305/ton. The PX supply is expected to tighten in Q2, and there is strong support at the bottom. The PTA market is in a phase of "increasing supply and stable demand." There is an expectation of PTA maintenance in Q2, and the medium-term outlook is still upward. Attention should be paid to the recovery of post - holiday orders [4]. - The ethylene glycol (MEG) plant operating rate has rebounded, and the seasonal inventory accumulation is at a high level since 2021. There is an expectation of plant maintenance and a reduction in imports in Q2, and the fundamentals are expected to improve slightly. The current price of MEG is at an absolute low, with limited downside space, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. - The pure benzene port inventory has slightly increased compared to before the holiday and remains at a historical high. The downstream performance is acceptable, and the styrene operating rate is expected to increase further. Pure benzene prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. For styrene, the domestic operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded, and the port inventory has continued to rise. The focus of the market is on the de - stocking amplitude after March, and the overall supply pressure of styrene is gradually increasing. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5]. Group 2: Industry Data Summary Crude Oil - This week, the overall crude oil price showed an oscillating upward trend, and the average price increased month - on - month [4]. PX&PTA - Domestic PX weekly capacity utilization was 93.25%, and Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization was 82.51%, both unchanged from last week. The PX - naphtha price difference was stable at around $305/ton. An East China 2 million - ton PX plant plans to shut down for maintenance from mid - March for 30 - 40 days, and another 700,000 - ton PX plant plans to conduct maintenance in early April for 50 - 60 days [6]. - This week, the PTA spot market price was 5,268 yuan/ton, an increase of 119 yuan/ton from last week. The PTA weekly average capacity utilization was 73.66%, a 0.28% increase from last week. The in - plant inventory days were 5.47 days, an increase of 1.46 days from last week. The PTA processing fee was 413 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton from last week [13]. MEG - This week, the price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3,639 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton from last week. The domestic overall operating rate of ethylene glycol was 66.34%, a 1.15% increase from last week. The port inventory in East China was 93.5 tons, an increase of 8.3 tons from last week. The inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival was slightly lower than expected [18]. Polyester and Weaving - The weekly average capacity utilization of the Chinese polyester industry was 77.27%, a 1.25 - percentage - point increase from last week. During the Spring Festival, the inventory of polyester fiber staple fiber and polyester filament increased. The starting rate of sample weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 22.63%, a 10.87% increase from the previous period. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 5.96 days, an increase of 0.15 days from last week. The average level of terminal weaving finished product inventory was 24.23 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from last week [24]. BZ&EB - This week, the domestic capacity utilization of pure benzene was 78.87%, a 0.56% decrease from last week; the styrene capacity utilization was 74.65%, a 1.45% increase from last week. The pure benzene - naphtha price difference was around $165/ton, with little change. The total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port sample in Jiangsu was 30.4 tons, unchanged from last week and still at a high level; the total inventory of the styrene port sample in Jiangsu was 15.1 tons, a significant increase of 5.48 tons from last week; the on - site inventory was 11.75 tons, an increase of 1.71 tons from last week [29].
金信期货观点-20260227
Jin Xin Qi Huo·2026-02-27 08:32